當經營一家小型公司，在面對競爭激烈的市場環境下，期望公司業績能持續並穩定成長，對管理者是很大的挑戰。然而對任何一家企業而言，它的產品能夠擁有多大的市場及多少的忠實顧客，對於業績的達成率都是經營管理者必須掌握的重要資訊，例如：每一個月或每一季度顧客交易次數與交易數量的成長幅度、以及交易量會達到何種程度。

清楚掌握這些問題的答案才能夠協助一家企業制定短期、中期和長期的經營管理策略，本研究擬探討此一議題，藉由個案公司提供738位VIP級客戶與實際購買記錄，利用RFM模型，進行客戶持續購買產品機率分析、預測客戶未來是否持續忠誠，同時預測客戶未來在公司產品上花費的金額。期能經由機率分析，較準確預估現有顧客將來能貢獻給企業的營收，企業可以藉此評估客戶價值與掌握企業未來營收，建構出忠誠顧客之模型，並研擬適當的行銷策略，作為企業客戶關係管理的參考，期待能藉此提升企業形象及強化經營管理效率。

In face of various fierce competitors in the market and expected the stable growth for managers in a small scale company is a great challenge. However, how much market share and royal customers are the most important for sales target. For example, precisely predict the trading volume and the growth scale by month or quarter. We really need good understanding of the company problems and then we could provide the directions for making short, middle and long-term management strategy. The paper is based on 738 VIP customer purchasing records and used REM model to analyze and estimate the customer accumulating expense rate and brand loyalty. We expect using the system to precise estimating the income of the company with present customer scale. The system could provide an excellent estimation of brand loyalty and company income in the future. Establish a customer model and then make a fit marketing strategy will be an important reference for manager decision. We believe we could upgrade the corporate image and enhance the manage performance through the system finally.

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