台灣位於歐亞板塊與菲律賓海板塊的交界帶，地震發生機率極高，尤其災害型地震的發生將造成社會與經濟的衝擊，因此積極的降低與預防震災損害相當重要。國內自由場地震測站分佈廣泛，也提供快速且品質良好之數據，可據以建立災害型地震後建築物最大反應之預估，本文感謝中央氣象局地球物理資訊系統之地震資料提供，得以進行大專院校建築物彈性反應預估公式之建立，將建築物實際反應與自由場測站地震資料建立關係，文中並以OKID/ERA識別方法與耐震設計規範之規定，對大專院校結構物進行振態參數識別，並據以推求大專院校鄰近自由場地震反應譜值，進行地震反應譜值與真實結構物的最大反應統計迴歸，求得自由場與結構物間之彈性反應線性預估關係，文中採用數值模擬與振動台實驗資料針對OKID/ERA識別方法之適用性與可行性進行探討，在頻率識別上均得到相當不錯效果，但阻尼比識別穩定度就較差。本文將以4棟不同地理位置、不同地質條件、不同結構形式之大專院校校舍作為討論對象，提出加速度與位移之彈性反應預估公式，並以桃園縣政府大樓進行預估公式實際案例驗證，最後並發展出成功大學校本部各建築物之振動預估圖，以期作為未來震損指標之重要參考。

The potential damages of buildings are closely related to their earthquake resistance capacity and their peak response demand subjected to severe earthquakes. In order to predict the peak building absolute acceleration (PBAA) and peak building relative dis-placement (PBRD) of campus buildings from the estimated spectral responses con-structed by a few nearby free-field stations, a few preliminary regression formulas are established in this study. Based on the Geophysical Database Management System (GDMS) of Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, four campus buildings with different structural types in different geographic regions are selected as the regressive models to find their elastic response estimation formulas around their nearby areas. Both simulation responses and experimental measurements from shaking table tests are examined to verify the applicability and reliability of the OKID/ERA method. The modal properties of each campus building suggested by code and identified by the OKID/ERA method are used to justify these estimation formulas. According to the proposed regression formulas, the peak responses forecast maps of the buildings in NCKU campus subjected to a few severe earthquakes are established and compared with their measured records.

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