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研究生: 陳駿崴
Chen, Chun-Wei
論文名稱: 產品競爭模式之研究-以台灣液化石油氣與液化天然氣銷售為例
The Research of Market Competition Model-Case of Shipment for LPG and LNG in Taiwan
指導教授: 耿伯文
Kreng, Victor B.
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系碩士在職專班
Department of Industrial and Information Management (on the job class)
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 58
中文關鍵詞: 液化石油氣液化天然氣Lotka-Volterra方程式動態競爭
外文關鍵詞: LPG, LNG, Lotka-Volterra, dynamic competition
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  • 台灣早期的燃料市場以液化石油氣(即俗稱之桶裝瓦斯)為主,液化石油氣由於可以灌裝於鋼瓶之中,所以不論是在移動或是使用上皆具有強大的便利性,因此在早期燃料市場可以說是完全由液化石油氣獨大。然而雖然方便,但是氣爆之事故也是時有所聞,因此政府近年來開始強力推動燃料改以液化天然氣替代,希望藉由較穩定之液化天然氣,減低危險事故及取代零亂難以管理的液化石油氣。在政府的強力推動之下,液化天然氣的銷售量呈現強力的成長,雖然液化石油氣之市場起初似乎未受影響,然而近一、兩年來卻似乎有開始出現銷售下滑之情形,可見此兩種燃料產品間之競爭已進入白熱化之階段。
    本研究在探討液化石油氣及液化天然氣兩者之間的動態競爭關係,將利用競爭模式-Lotka-Volterra競爭模式,並針對其結果做均衡性探討。結果顯示,液化石油氣與液化天然氣之競爭方式是屬於純競爭的方式,亦即以你死我活的方式爭食市場大餅,且在未來均衡點的表現為兩者皆會在市場中存在,但液化石油氣是處於銷售量較為弱勢的一方。此結果與現況趨勢符合,因政府目前極力推動液化天然氣之使用,故液化天然氣之競爭力便可遠大於液化石油氣。然而即使身處劣勢,液化石油氣仍有其固有消費者存在,因此如何提升競爭力,便是此兩種燃料產品業者需要深思熟慮之事了!

    Fuel market of the early days of Taiwan-based liquefied petroleum gas (commonly known as bottled gas), liquefied petroleum gas can filling into cylinders, whether in mobile or use all the powerful convenience, so early fuel market can be said is completely dominant LPG. However, while the gas explosion accident is heard, the government in recent years began to strongly promote the fuel change to the liquefied natural gas instead of the hope that by stability of liquefied natural gas to reduce the risk of accident, and replace the disorder is difficult to manage LPG . Under the Government's strong push LNG sales showing strong growth, although the LPG market initially seemed to be unaffected, however, nearly two years, but seems to have started a sales decline of the situation shows that the two fuel products, has entered the competition heating up the stage.
    This study investigated the dynamic competitive relationship between the two liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas, will take advantage of the competition model of Lotka-Volterra competition model, balanced discussion and its results. The results show that the way of liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas competition is pure competition, that is life and death fought over the market for themselves, and in the future performance of the equilibrium point exists in the market for both, but the liquefaction liquefied petroleum gas is in the sales volume of more disadvantaged. This results in line with the status of trends because the Government is strongly promoting the use of liquefied natural gas, liquefied natural gas is competitive can be much larger than the liquefied petroleum gas. Even if living in disadvantage, however, LPG is still inherent in consumers exist, how to improve the competitiveness, is the two types of fuel products industry considered the matter!

    摘要 I Abstract II 致謝 III 目錄 IV 表目錄 VI 圖目錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究範圍與限制 3 1.4 研究方法與流程 3 第二章 文獻探討 5 2.1 液化石油氣及液化天然氣之發展與比較 5 2.1.1液化石油氣發展沿革與特性 5 2.1.2液化天然氣之特性與政府推動之政策 11 2.2 Lotka-Volterra方程式 14 2.3競爭策略 16 2.4小結 22 第三章 產品競爭模式 24 3.1競爭模式分析 24 3.2均衡點及穩定性 26 3.3模式參數之估計方式及產業分析 27 第四章 液化石油氣與液化天然氣競爭模式與均衡探討 29 4.1液化石油氣及液化天然氣兩者間的競爭關係 29 4.2均衡狀態 34 4.3液化石油氣與液化天然氣之競爭力分析 36 第五章 結論與未來研究方向 40 5.1研究結論 40 5.2液化氣體產業經營管理建議 41 5.3未來研究方向與建議 44 參考文獻 46 附錄一、國內石油產品消費表 49 附錄二、液化天然氣供給與消費表 51 附錄三、能源產品單位熱值表 53 附錄四、全台灣液化石油氣分裝廠名冊 54

    中文部分:
    台灣綜合研究院石油策略研究中心(2007)。石油策略研究中心專題分析報導。台
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    網站部分:
    中油液化石油氣事業部,”LPG組成特性,”
    http://www.cpc.com.tw/big5_BD/lpg/content/index.asp?pno=24, 2010.
    經濟部能源局,”健全油氣市場管理,”
    http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/About/webpage/book2/page1.htm, 2010

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