| 研究生: |
陳駿崴 Chen, Chun-Wei |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
產品競爭模式之研究-以台灣液化石油氣與液化天然氣銷售為例 The Research of Market Competition Model-Case of Shipment for LPG and LNG in Taiwan |
| 指導教授: |
耿伯文
Kreng, Victor B. |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系碩士在職專班 Department of Industrial and Information Management (on the job class) |
| 論文出版年: | 2012 |
| 畢業學年度: | 100 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 58 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 液化石油氣 、液化天然氣 、Lotka-Volterra方程式 、動態競爭 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | LPG, LNG, Lotka-Volterra, dynamic competition |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:157 下載:5 |
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台灣早期的燃料市場以液化石油氣(即俗稱之桶裝瓦斯)為主,液化石油氣由於可以灌裝於鋼瓶之中,所以不論是在移動或是使用上皆具有強大的便利性,因此在早期燃料市場可以說是完全由液化石油氣獨大。然而雖然方便,但是氣爆之事故也是時有所聞,因此政府近年來開始強力推動燃料改以液化天然氣替代,希望藉由較穩定之液化天然氣,減低危險事故及取代零亂難以管理的液化石油氣。在政府的強力推動之下,液化天然氣的銷售量呈現強力的成長,雖然液化石油氣之市場起初似乎未受影響,然而近一、兩年來卻似乎有開始出現銷售下滑之情形,可見此兩種燃料產品間之競爭已進入白熱化之階段。
本研究在探討液化石油氣及液化天然氣兩者之間的動態競爭關係,將利用競爭模式-Lotka-Volterra競爭模式,並針對其結果做均衡性探討。結果顯示,液化石油氣與液化天然氣之競爭方式是屬於純競爭的方式,亦即以你死我活的方式爭食市場大餅,且在未來均衡點的表現為兩者皆會在市場中存在,但液化石油氣是處於銷售量較為弱勢的一方。此結果與現況趨勢符合,因政府目前極力推動液化天然氣之使用,故液化天然氣之競爭力便可遠大於液化石油氣。然而即使身處劣勢,液化石油氣仍有其固有消費者存在,因此如何提升競爭力,便是此兩種燃料產品業者需要深思熟慮之事了!
Fuel market of the early days of Taiwan-based liquefied petroleum gas (commonly known as bottled gas), liquefied petroleum gas can filling into cylinders, whether in mobile or use all the powerful convenience, so early fuel market can be said is completely dominant LPG. However, while the gas explosion accident is heard, the government in recent years began to strongly promote the fuel change to the liquefied natural gas instead of the hope that by stability of liquefied natural gas to reduce the risk of accident, and replace the disorder is difficult to manage LPG . Under the Government's strong push LNG sales showing strong growth, although the LPG market initially seemed to be unaffected, however, nearly two years, but seems to have started a sales decline of the situation shows that the two fuel products, has entered the competition heating up the stage.
This study investigated the dynamic competitive relationship between the two liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas, will take advantage of the competition model of Lotka-Volterra competition model, balanced discussion and its results. The results show that the way of liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas competition is pure competition, that is life and death fought over the market for themselves, and in the future performance of the equilibrium point exists in the market for both, but the liquefaction liquefied petroleum gas is in the sales volume of more disadvantaged. This results in line with the status of trends because the Government is strongly promoting the use of liquefied natural gas, liquefied natural gas is competitive can be much larger than the liquefied petroleum gas. Even if living in disadvantage, however, LPG is still inherent in consumers exist, how to improve the competitiveness, is the two types of fuel products industry considered the matter!
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網站部分:
中油液化石油氣事業部,”LPG組成特性,”
http://www.cpc.com.tw/big5_BD/lpg/content/index.asp?pno=24, 2010.
經濟部能源局,”健全油氣市場管理,”
http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/About/webpage/book2/page1.htm, 2010