近年來，工業的發展提高了人類的生活水準及便利性，但伴隨而來的高度污染已經嚴重地影響生存環境。有鑑於環境污染對生態及人類有重要的影響，世界各國均著手訂定環境污染的相關罰則，以期能降低污染物，減少對環境的污染。目前我國針對空氣污染罰款的部分是以行政院環保署所制定的「空氣污染防制法」作為執法的依據。本研究係針對兩種不同的空氣污染物，首先依據環保法規建立適合不同污染物的階梯損失函數(step loss function)並比較其與田口單邊二次損失函數及INLF(inverted normal loss function)之間的差異，其次利用合成函數求算此兩種不同污染物同時發生之機率，最後則結合損失函數及同時發生之機率，評估其潛在風險及損失。使用合成函數的優點是可建立不同邊際分配函數的聯合機率函數，並進一步求得總期望損失。利用合成函數計算損失的方式，可取得較精確結果及損失之估算。最後本研究以高雄縣某人造樹脂公司所提供之氮氧化物(Nox)及硫氧化物(Sox)連續自動監測紀錄資料再比較以不同方式估算兩個污染物同時發生對工廠所造成潛在風險及損失。

關鍵詞:階梯損失函數、空氣污染防制法，合成函數(copula)

Recently, the over industrialization and excessive use of natural resource have caused many series environmental problems, and thereby reduced the living quality of human beings. In view of the serious ecological problems caused by an pollution and other contaminations, almost all the countries around the world including the Environmental Protection Administration(EPA) of Taiwan have imposed regulations or laws, such as air pollution control act to reduce and control air pollution problems. In this research, we first establish a suitable step loss function based on various penalties stipulated in the Air Pollution Control Act of Taiwan. The differences among step loss function, Taguchi quadratic and Inverted normal loss functions are compared too. Secondly, the risk and potential losses of the two different pollutants occur at the same times are estimated by combining the copula and loss functions. The advantage of using copula function is that the joint probability function for difference marginal distributions, the expected total losses can be calculated in a more precise way. Finally, the application of copula function in estimating the risk and potential loss is demonstrated through a set of realistic Nox and Sox data provided by a chemical company located at kaoshiung county of Taiwan.

Keyword: step loss function, air pollution control act, copula function

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