在市場經濟中，產能不足或產能過剩一直是各行業所面臨的一大問題，因此產能規劃成為企業需要謹慎決策的重要議題。以製造業來說，企業往往會先預測未來市場需求，並規劃現有產能該如何分配，近年來，為了應對可能發生產能不足的問題，企業除了選擇直接進行自身產能擴建，也可以選擇向其他供應商購買產能，但由於直接的產能擴建成本相當高，再加上未來可能產生產能閒置的風險，產能共享逐漸成為企業優化產能利用的策略，期望能有效解決產能不平衡的問題。因此，本研究考量兩製造商於市場中進行數量競爭，在面對需求的不確定性下，雙方根據自身對未來需求資訊的預測，協定是否同意在需要時能夠產能互相分享，以合作的方式滿足雙方的產能需求，並於需求實現後選擇是否進行動態調整。根據上述建構不分享與分享兩情境之模型，藉由兩情境之期望獲利比較，決策出最有利的產能策略，最後透過與標竿情境的比較，觀察兩製造商於需求揭露後是否有動機進行動態調整。本研究發現(1) 產能充足的製造商即使產能充足，也可能願意接收產能有限的製造商的分享產能。(2) 除了預測可靠度的影響，需求高之先驗機率也會影響雙方分享策略的選擇範圍，當兩製造商預測狀態不同，隨著兩參數的變動，雙方在某範圍內有意願參與分享，但僅限產能有限製造商向產能充足製造商購買產能的合作型態。(3) 在大部分的預測狀態中，產能有限製造商會選擇動態調整，而產能充足製造商只會在本身預測為低的狀態下選擇增量生產；且大部分的動態調整都能使兩製造商獲利增加，僅在某預測狀態下產能有限製造商的獲利反而減少。

In market economy, insufficient or overcapacity has always been a major problem faced by various industries. Therefore, capacity planning has become an important issue that enterprises need to make careful decision-making. In order to deal with the problem of insufficient capacity, companies can choose to expand capacity directly, but because the cost of direct capacity expansion is quite high, and there may be idle capacity in the future. In recent years, capacity sharing or pre-purchasing capacity from other companies has gradually become a strategy for optimizing capacity utilization. It is hoped that the problem of unbalanced capacity can be effectively solved. Therefore, this study constructs a two-phase decision model, considering the two manufacturers in the planning stage, in the face of the uncertainty of demand, they must agree on whether they can share capacity and meet the capacity needs of both parties in a cooperative way based on their own forecasts of future demand, and choose whether to make dynamic adjustments during the demand realization stage. This study found that (1) Manufacturer with sufficient capacity may be willing to accept shared capacity from manufacturer with limited capacity. (2) In addition to the impact of forecast reliability, the prior probability of high demand will also affect the range of both parties’ choice of strategies. When the two manufacturers predict different states, the two parties are willing to participate in the sharing within a certain range, but only the type of cooperation where the manufacturer with limited capacity purchases capacity from the manufacturer with sufficient capacity. (3) In most forecast states, manufacturer with limited capacity will choose dynamic adjustments, while manufacturer with sufficient capacity will only choose incremental production when his forecast is low. Most of the dynamic adjustments can increase the profits of the two manufacturers, but the profits of the manufacturer with limited capacity will decrease only under a certain forecast state.

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