| 研究生: |
陳沛縢 Chen, Pei-Teng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
ECFA對台灣南部經濟之影響評估-區域可計算一般均衡模型之應用 Assessing the Impacts of Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement on Southern Economy in Taiwan-An Application of Regional Computable General Equilibrium |
| 指導教授: |
劉亞明
Liu, Ya-Ming |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2011 |
| 畢業學年度: | 99 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 134 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 區域性可計算一般均衡 、經濟合作架構協議 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | regional computable general equilibrium, economic cooperation framework agreement |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:139 下載:5 |
| 分享至: |
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可計算一般均衡模型可用來解釋整個經濟體系中各產業部門間互動之情形,並能分析模擬整個經濟活動在地區之運作與地區活動對整體經濟之影響。其應用主要有國際貿易、關稅與稅制改革、能源以及環境等議題,國內除了劉春初(2005)及郭訓德(2006)以區域性資料進行區域性可計算一般均衡模型之外,其他則尚無探討小區域之研究。
本研究提供詳細說明如何建構一個小區域的CGE模型,並且應用該模型分析台灣加入ECFA後對南部區域經濟影響。一般而言,建構小區域的CGE模型有其困難度,大部分是缺乏資料所致。本研究主要貢獻是透過相關次級資料整理,編製出2006年24部門南部地區區域投入產出表,並藉由此表建立南部地區區域社會會計矩陣,以作為南部區域模型之資料基礎,而後應用該模型探討台灣加入ECFA後對南部區域經濟影響。
本研究模擬結果得到,兩岸加入ECFA後,由於貿易障礙屏除、資源有效分配,將有助於南部地區的經濟狀況。實質GDP約可增加新台幣393億元、總產值約可增加1.42%、家計消費約可增加1.54%、出口總額增加約0.105%、進口總額增加約0.019%、貿易餘額增加新台幣15億元以及勞動需求增加10660人。
此外,模擬若僅調降第一級產業或僅調降第二級產業之關稅,可發現第一、二級產業關稅皆調降的情境其實質GDP與就業需求增加最多。因此第一、二級產業之進出口關稅皆調降的模擬情境能對南部創造較大的利益。
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the interactions among industries, simulate the economic activities of the region, and analyze the impact the impact of regional activities on the economy. The applications range from international trading, tariff and tax reforms model to the issues of energy and environment. However, except the regional computable general equilibrium (RCGE) model established by Liu (2005) and Kuo (2006), there are still very rare RCGE studies to addressthe issues of regional economic development in Taiwan.
This research establishes a regional computable general equilibrium model and applies it to simulate the influences of implementing economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) on the southern economy in Taiwan. The main difficulty of building a RCGE model is lacking of suitable statistic data. This research overcomes thisdifficulty by aggregating indirect data to construct the southern Taiwan’s regional input-output table. On the basis of the regional Input-Output table, regional social account matrix is complied as the fundamental data source of the RCGE model, which in turn is applied to analyze the topic of research.
Due to the removal of the trade barriers that results in more efficient allocation of resources, our results indicate the introduction of ECFA will benefit the southern economy: real GDP increases by 39.3 billion NT dollars, output increases by 1.42%, the consumptions of household increases by1.54%, value of export increases by 0.105%, value of import increases by 0.019%, trade balance increases by 1.5 billion NT dollars, and labor demand increases by 10.66 thousand.
Comparing the results from the tariff cut of the first-level industry or the tariff cut of the second-level industry respectively, we can find that the tariff cut of both the first-level and second-level industry simultaneously could increase both real GDP and labor demand to the highest level. Therefore, the tariff cut of both first-level and second-level industry can create more benefits to the southern economy in Taiwan.
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