本研究探討亞熱帶氣候下極端氣溫與不同交通工具流量的非線性關係，並分析交通需求對天氣衝擊的異質性反應。基於廣義出行成本理論，極端氣溫造成的生理與心理不適會提高非貨幣出行成本，進而影響出行決策。本文整合2016至2025年臺灣國道ETC、臺鐵及臺北捷運日流量資料，並排除2020至2022年疫情期間，以反距離加權法進行氣象資料配對，並透過高維度固定效果模型控制地區與時間異質性，以估計短期氣溫變化與交通需求之間的關係。
實證結果顯示，氣溫對交通需求具有明顯的非線性與異質性。在臺灣亞熱帶氣候環境下，交通需求對低溫的反應較高溫明顯。相較於15–30°C的基準溫度區間，當最高氣溫低於10°C時，臺鐵流量約下降7.61%，降幅高於極端高溫下的1.91%，與部分高緯度地區文獻較強調高溫抑制效果的結果不同。另一方面，極端低溫下國道ETC流量約下降2.26%，低於臺鐵的7.61%，此結果與不同交通工具在室外暴露程度上的差異相符。
此外，氣溫效果也會因出行時段與區域而異。假日臺鐵流量在極端低溫下約下降13.64%，降幅高於平日，與假日出行具有較高調整彈性的解釋一致。區域方面，六都及臺北地區受到低溫的影響相對較小，可能與較完整的候車、轉乘與遮蔽設施有關。
整體而言，極端氣溫會透過提高出行不適感與廣義出行成本，形成不同交通工具、出行時段與地區間的異質性反應。政策上，政府應改善大眾運輸候車、轉乘與室內換乘環境，降低旅客對極端天氣的暴露，以提升交通系統的氣候韌性與永續性。

This study examines the nonlinear effects of extreme temperatures on transport demand in subtropical Taiwan using daily data from national freeway ETC, Taiwan Railways, and Taipei Metro from 2016 to 2025, excluding 2020–2022. Weather data are matched using inverse-distance weighting, and high-dimensional fixed-effects models are used to control for regional and temporal differences. Relative to the 15–30°C reference range, Taiwan Railways ridership falls by 7.61% when temperatures are below 10°C, compared with a 1.91% decline when temperatures are 35°C or above, indicating a stronger response to extreme cold. Under extreme cold, freeway ETC volume decreases by 2.26%, while weekend railway ridership falls by 13.64%. The effects are also smaller in metropolitan areas, possibly reflecting differences in transport facilities and outdoor exposure. These results show that temperature effects vary across transport modes, travel periods, and regions, with implications for improving the climate resilience of public transport.

交通部（2025）。113年民眾日常使用交通工具狀況調查。中華民國交通部。https://www.motc.gov.tw/ch/app/data/doc?id=56&module=survey&detailNo=1387600371127422976&serno=202506260000&type=s
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