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研究生: 莊惠棋
Chuang, Hui-Ci
論文名稱: 台灣北部區域在新冠肺炎衝擊下經濟韌性之差異研究
Study of differences in economic resilience in northern Taiwan under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic
指導教授: 胡太山
Hu, Tai-Shan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系
Department of Urban Planning
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 95
中文關鍵詞: 經濟韌性COVID-19經濟衝擊知識創新產業結構地區差異
外文關鍵詞: Economic resilience, COVID-19, Economic shocks, Knowledge innovation, Industrial structure, Regional differences
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  • 都市內人類活動的高度密集及不均衡發展,對自然環境產生侵略及破壞,再加上經濟貿易全球化、跨區域交通來往頻繁等,雖促使城市繁榮發展,但也易引發疾病發生及傳播;在1918年西班牙流感、2002年嚴重急性呼吸道症候群SARS等疫情衝擊,對各地造成嚴重經濟危機,城市的災後韌性也引起國內外學者關注;而,例如擁有多樣化的經濟結構體、知識密集產業發展環境、高度交通可及性及高社會移入率等特徵,對於該地區經濟發展更具有韌性。在以往流行病相關的城市研究主要集中在不平等的問題上,以及初級產業生產環境受影響之程度;而人畜共患病之傳染病包含冠狀病毒(COVID-19)則偏向於消費衝擊,主要影響第二、三級產業。在2019年底,該疾病首例病例出現於中國湖北省武漢市,隨後迅速傳播至多國家,引發全球大流行,多數研究探究疾病傳播因素及經濟活動指標作為衡量因子,目前研究結果認為交通可及性、醫療院所、餐廳市場等較易受疾病傳播影響,進而加劇該地區之衝擊,對於都市經濟韌性發展更為不利。
    臺灣北部區域擁有活躍的經濟活動、國際機場、研究中心及人才培育等,滿足有助於經濟韌性的條件,但也因交通便捷、跨國貿易、經濟互動頻繁等特徵下,潛在著高度疾病傳播風險,使得COVID-19疫情來襲時,引發居民恐慌、經濟衝擊、衰退,因此本研究透過衡量臺灣北部區域在此事件中之都市經濟韌性,並彙整過往研究認為有益經濟韌性發展之因子,及目前研究表明不利於抵禦都市流行病之要素,皆納入都市經韌性變數選擇,補足都市面臨不同衝擊事件中,較少傳染病對經濟衝擊之研究,比較影響都市韌性因子在此COVID-19疫情下之的體現。
    本研究透過北部區域2020年疫情期間之經濟韌性,發現各縣市中以臺北市為整體縣市中表現最不佳,且尚未恢復至先前狀態,縣市以臺北市萬華區、松山區及桃園市大園區之經濟韌性最低;而變數間相關係數顯示:製造業佔比及研究發展金額越高的地區越有利於經濟韌性,但人口流動率與公共設施面積比高則不易於經濟韌性之表現,可能因接觸機率提高,伴隨傳播風險增加,導致消費意願降低。

    The high and uneven development of human activities in the city is easy to cause the occurrence and spread of diseases. Therefore, the post-disaster resilience of the city has also attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad. For example, it has a diversified economic structure, a knowledge-intensive industry development environment, and high transportation accessibility. and high social emigration rate, it is more resilient to the economic development of the region.
    However, these characteristics are facing changes in the impact of COVID-19. Take the northern part of Taiwan as an example, it has active economic activities and talent training. It meets conditions that contribute to economic resilience. Due to the frequent nature of cross-border trade, there is a potential high risk of disease transmission. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, it caused a recession. Therefore, this study measures the urban economic resilience of northern Taiwan during this event, and integrates the factors that previous research believes to be favorable for the development of economic resilience and the current research that is not conducive to resisting urban epidemics, and incorporates research variables to make up for the different cities facing different Shock events, fewer infectious diseases have economic impact on the economy This study compares the performance of factors affecting urban resilience in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak.
    The research results show that regions with a higher proportion of manufacturing and research and development are more conducive to economic resilience, but a high ratio of population mobility to public facilities is not easy to demonstrate economic resilience, which may be due to increased exposure and increased risk of transmission. , resulting in a lower willingness to consume.

    摘要 Ⅰ 目錄 Ⅹ 表目錄 XII 圖目錄 XIII 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究範疇與時間尺度 3 第三節 研究架構與流程 4 第二章 文獻回顧 6 第一節 傳染病造成之衝擊 6 第二節 傳染病衝擊事件的相關研究 13 第三節 都市韌性的知識化過程 15 第四節 都市經濟韌性的相關研究 20 第三章 研究設計 27 第一節 研究架構 27 第二節 研究假說 30 第三節 研究對象 31 第四節 資料蒐集與說明 32 第五節 研究分析方法 33 第四章 疫情概述與經濟發展背景 35 第一節 全球及臺灣COVID-19疫情概述 35 第二節 臺灣北部區域之經濟消費分析 40 第三節 臺灣北部區域之產業發展分析 41 第四節 臺灣北部區域之人才與創新量能分析 45 第五節 臺灣北部區域之規劃治理分析 50 第六節 小結 53 第五章 臺灣北部區域之經濟韌性探討 55 第一節 經濟韌性指數及類型 55 第二節 經濟韌性假說之驗證 61 第三節 結果探討與分析 67 第六章 結論與建議 80 第一節 結論 80 第二節 研究限制 81 第三節 未來研究建議 81 參考文獻 84

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