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研究生: 江孟昊
Jiang, Meng-Hao
論文名稱: 市場對反ESG政治訊號之反應:以川普再次當選為事件研究
Market Reactions to Anti-ESG Political Signals: An Event Study of Trump’s Re-election
指導教授: 劉梧柏
Liu, Wu-Po
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 100
中文關鍵詞: ESG政治風險事件研究法異常報酬TESG碳排放強度
外文關鍵詞: ESG, Political Risk, Event Study, Abnormal Returns, TESG, Carbon Emission Intensity
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  • 本研究旨在探討特定美國政治事件所引發的ESG「政治阻力」,如何影響台灣資本市場,並檢視企業的ESG表現在此類衝擊下是否對股價產生差異化的影響;研究鎖定2024年川普再次當選美國總統與2025年其宣布退出《巴黎協定》為事件日,採用事件研究法,並針對台灣上市櫃公司的TESG綜合評級、溫室氣體排放分數及碳排強度等數據進行分析。
    實證方法結合了平均數差異檢定與控制了公司規模、財務結構及產業效果的多元迴歸模型;研究發現,儘管初步的組間比較顯示溫室氣體管理較佳或碳效率較高的公司相對抗跌,但在更嚴謹的迴歸分析後,ESG相關因子的直接定價效果大多不顯著或呈現與預期不一致的結果;此結果顯示,在短期政治衝擊下,市場反應更多地受到傳統財務因素與產業特性的主導,而非直接、穩定地對ESG表現給予溢價或折價;本研究的發現對實務層面亦具管理意涵,強調投資者在面對短期不確定性時,ESG評估需結合企業基本面分析;而對企業而言,穩健的營運與財務狀況仍是抵禦外部衝擊的基石。

    This study examines the stock price reactions of Taiwanese listed companies to anti-ESG political signals, specifically the 2024 re-election of Donald Trump and the 2025 U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Using an event study methodology, the research analyzes the impact of three ESG metrics—the TESG rating, GHG emission score, and carbon intensity—through both difference-in-means tests and OLS regressions controlling for firm fundamentals. While preliminary T-tests suggest firms with better environmental metrics (higher GHG scores, lower carbon intensity) were more resilient, these effects were nullified in the more robust OLS regression analysis. After controlling for factors like firm size and leverage, the direct pricing effect of ESG characteristics largely disappeared or became inconsistent, with market reactions being more heavily influenced by traditional financial and industry factors. The study concludes that during short-term political shocks, investors in the Taiwanese market prioritize financial fundamentals over standalone ESG metrics, indicating that ESG's value may be more relevant in a long-term context.

    摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 V 目錄 VI 表目錄 VIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 3 1.3 研究目的 4 1.4 研究流程與方法 5 1.5 主要研究發現預覽 6 第二章 文獻回顧與假說 7 2.1 前言 7 2.2 ESG表現與財務績效 8 2.3 碳排放、氣候風險與企業價值 9 2.4 政治不確定性與市場反應 10 2.5 ESG資訊揭露與資訊不對稱 11 2.6 研究假說 12 第三章 研究設計 13 3.1 研究樣本與資料來源 13 3.2 事件研究法設計 16 3.3 變數定義與衡量 17 3.4 資料分析方法 18 第四章 實證結果 19 4.1 TESG評級分組之事件研究分析 19 4.2 溫室氣體排放分數分組之事件研究分析 40 4.3 碳排強度分組之事件研究分析 50 4.4 迴歸分析結果與綜合分析 57 第五章 結論與建議 82 5.1 研究結論 82 5.2 研究貢獻 83 5.3 研究限制 84 5.4 未來研究建議 86 5.5 實務與建議 87 參考文獻 88

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