現今全球化市場中，企業所面臨最大的挑戰，便是如何才能設計、製造出符合顧客多樣需求之產品。在過去，當企業面對下游市場之需求不確定時，乃利用銷售歷史紀錄來預測未來可能之銷售量，再運用「預測性生產」之方式來進行產品的製造及配送，如此可使企業享有製造與配送之規模經濟，並縮短顧客之等待時間。但如此會造成存貨成本大量增加，甚至有產品過時之風險；或是因為產生缺貨，造成顧客等待時間拉長，因而降低顧客服務水準。近年來企業為解決因產品多樣化所造成之各種問題，提出藉由產品規格、製程等重新設計規劃，將不同產品間的差異點延遲，待顧客訂單確認後才完成最後差異化的作業；或是藉由存貨之集中控管，至需求確定後，再進行最後之配送工作。此種將產品差異點或物流配送作業盡可能延後之方式，即為「延遲策略（postponement strategy）」。

　　延遲策略的發展在學術界、業界皆由來已久，多年來已有許多相關研究探討延遲策略之定義、分類及相關模式分析。企業採行延遲策略亦有其優缺點：採行延遲策略，不僅在於可以有效解決需求預測不準確之問題，尚可增加供應鏈之彈性、加強成本效益、以及改善顧客服務水準；然而企業在實施延遲策略的同時，也意味著犧牲大量製造和配送的規模經濟，並造成顧客等待時間拉長。因此，無論採用預測或延遲策略，皆有其利益及風險。在延遲策略與預測性生產同時存在的情況下，企業應如何在此二者間抉擇一最適當之平衡點，便經常成為獲利與否之重要關鍵，亦為本研究欲探討之重點。

　　本研究有鑑於以往和供應鏈延遲策略相關之定量研究，其探討範圍僅限於製造流程之部分，因此嘗試建構了一包含製造、配送流程及相關延遲／預測策略之完整供應鏈網路結構，並針對該網路結構建立了相對應之數學模式，以深入探討企業在期望能達到總成本最小化之目標下，採行何種延遲／預測策略，或是採行由哪些延遲／預測策略所組成之複合式策略，除能達成企業成本最小化之目標外，更能滿足一定之顧客服務水準。本研究並進一步探討當需求不確定，顧客端需求量服從常態分配之情況下，在總成本最小化時對所求得之產品供應量及延遲／預測策略選擇等是否有所影響。

　　透過模型之操作與實例之分析比較，可得知需求的變異對延遲／預測策略之選擇不構成任何影響，僅部分因需求不確定所產生之單位剩餘成本會對產品供應量造成些微影響。而影響整個供應鏈延遲／預測策略選擇之主要因子，仍以相關之各項成本因子（包括製造成本、配送成本及存貨成本等）及構成顧客服務水準之時間因子為主。因此企業在確實掌握各項成本及時間因子之資料後，便可以此作為延遲／預測策略選擇之主要依據，以達成及總成本最小化，及滿足顧客服務水準之目的，更能藉由最適化之延遲／預測策略組合，提高企業對於市場需求波動之掌控力，增進企業在市場上之競爭力。

　　Today in the globalization market, how to design and produce the products which can satisfy the various demands of customers is the biggest challenge that companies are in the face of. In the past, when companies faced the uncertain market demands, they used historical demand information to forecast the future demands, and then used these forecasts to manufacture and distribute the products. Therefore they could have the economies of scale for production and distribution, and shorten customers’ waiting time. On the contrary, it might also increase the inventory costs and the obsolescence risks, or lengthen customers’ waiting time. Recently, for solving problems came from variations of products, lots of companies try to redesign the product/process so that the point of differentiation or customization is delayed until closer to the time the product is sold, or centralize the inventory and distribute the products until demand is certain. These ways that postpone the points of differentiation or distribution processes are called “postponement strategies.”

　　There are both advantages and disadvantages when companies apply postponement strategies: they could effectively solve the problem caused by inaccurate forecasting, increase the flexibility of supply chain, and improve service levels; on the contrary, they could sacrifice the economies of scale for production and distribution, and lengthen customers’ waiting time. Therefore, whether companies apply postponement strategies or not, there are both benefits and risks. So how to choose the best balancing point between these trade-offs is the most important key for companies if they could earn profits. It is also the key point that this research will focus on.

　　Seeing that past researches only discussed about the manufacturing processes, for thoroughly studying the most cost-effective postponement strategy/combination of strategies under the objective of cost minimization and satisfaction of proper service level, we build a complete supply chain network, which includes all the speculation/postponement strategies applied in the manufacturing and distribution processes, and also construct its mathematical model, to analysis if the uncertain demands could influence the choice of postponement strategies.

　　After numerical experiments and analyses, the results show that the variation of demand won’t influence the choice of postponement strategies. Only the manufacturing, distribution, inventory, and surplus costs and the time factor of service level could influence companies’ choices. Therefore, after having the data of each cost and time factor, companies can use these data to choose the most cost-effective postponement strategy/combination of strategies to increase the reaction and competition abilities when facing the uncertain market demands.

【中文部分】
1. 林明煙，民國92年6月，大陸長江三角洲地區建立整合性供應鏈網路結構模式之研究—以筆記型電腦為例，國立成功大學管理學院高階管理碩士在職專班（EMBA）碩士論文。
2. 邱謙成，民國90年6月，供應鏈延遲策略之總相關成本分析，國立成功大學工業管理研究所碩士論文。
3. 陳竑廷，民國91年6月，推遲策略應用在供應鏈管理之實證研究，東吳大學商學院企業管理學系碩士論文。
4. 黃毓瑩，民國91年6月，動態環境下的延遲決策—以標準化、模組化為例，國立中山大學企業管理學系碩士論文。
5. 蔡家華，民國92年6月，混合式延遲策略之最適分配量研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。

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