| 研究生: |
梁詠涵 Liang, Yung-Han |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
臺灣縣市房價之區域差異分析-空間追蹤資料模型的應用 The Regional Differences of Housing Price in Taiwan- An Application of Spatial Panel Data Model |
| 指導教授: |
陳彥仲
Chen, Yen-Jong |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系 Department of Urban Planning |
| 論文出版年: | 2016 |
| 畢業學年度: | 104 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 54 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 縣市房價 、空間追蹤資料模型 、外溢效果 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Regional Housing Price, Spatial Panel Data Model, Spillover Effect |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:143 下載:1 |
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臺灣房價逐年上升,但若將觀察尺度縮小至直轄市與一般縣市,就出現趨勢不一的差異,此差異源於區域發展程度與階段不同,造成住宅市場環境條件的相異,而探討縣市住宅市場的運作機制與特性,有助於縣市政府在縣市住宅市場失靈時研擬適當的調節措施。
本研究以投資決策模型推導出總體因素與地區性因素影響的地區房價模型,並以空間追蹤資料進行實證分析,綜合考量不同縣市之間的空間異質性,以及鄰近縣市之間互相影響的空間相依性,探討縣市房價受到哪些因素影響,以及縣市住宅市場之間的互動關係,並分析不同區域之間的縣市住宅市場之特性又存在著哪些差異。
本研究利用都市及區域發展統計彙編、縣市統計資料庫與不動產資訊平台等蒐集之臺灣本島19個縣市,自2002至2014年之資料進行實證分析,發現臺灣整體縣市住宅市場被消費需求、投資需求、公共服務品質等地區性因素與利率等總體因素影響,但若以區域之視角觀察住宅市場,僅有北部區域的投資需求顯著影響房價,南部區域的消費需求對房價的影響效果最大,北部區域的房價外溢效果為正,中部區域為負,南部區域的空間相依性則不顯著,顯示縣市住宅市場在不同區域之間的運作特性存在差異,本研究推論與臺灣區域發展歷程有關。
本研究建議未來在調節住宅市場時,應考量區域之間的差異,針對不同區域進行住宅市場問題的探討,調節措施除了課稅等總體性措施,也應綜合區域性或縣市性的措施,進行住宅市場的調節。
Although housing price in Taiwan keeps increasing in recent years, the rising of regional housing price is inconsistency, caused by the differences of built environment, population, public service and so on. This Study established a regional housing price model through literature review in order to investigate how national and regional factors impact on regional housing market. By using spatial panel data, the problem of spatial heterogeneity, spatial dependency and omitted variable bias are controlled. Through theoretic model construction and empirical analysis, this study found that the key factors affecting housing price differ from region to region. Comparing to northern and central region in Taiwan, the elasticity of demand for Housing consumption in southern region is the largest. The investment is relatively more active in northern region. The spatial spillover effect are positive in northern region, negative in central region, and insignificant in southern region. The results show that the three region were in different stage of regional development, causing the characteristic of regional housing market were different. In conclusion, to fix the problem of regional housing market, the government should not only consider the housing market but also regional development.
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