台灣屬亞熱帶氣候，雖然年降雨量豐沛，但因地勢陡峻及降雨集中於豐水期，導致大部分雨水迅速流入海洋，造成水資源調度困難。氣候變遷導致降雨時空分布更加極端，水資源面臨重大挑戰。傳統水庫受限於地形、生態與社會條件，建設地點日益稀少，且水庫淤積問題嚴重，影響其蓄水與調節功能。因此，開發新興水源成為重要課題，其中海岸水庫因具備能源消耗低、壽命長、生態衝擊小等優勢，已在多國推行並展現良好效益。本研究以具建設潛力之大鵬灣區域為例，選定其上游東港溪與林邊溪流域進行分析，利用SRH-W二維水理與輸砂數值模式(Sedimentation and River Hydraulics - Watershed Model)，採用五種GCM並模擬基期(1995-2014年)及未來長期(2081-2100年)之逕流量與輸砂量，進行變化趨勢分析，並評估氣候變遷下設置海岸水庫之可行性。同時，為兼顧生態保育，亦進行魚類棲地分析，透過水深、流速與懸浮泥砂濃度等指標，判斷魚類不適棲息面積比例之變化，評估氣候變遷對魚類生存環境造成的潛在衝擊。綜合本研究模擬與分析結果，於未來氣候變遷情境下，兩流域之降雨量普遍呈現上升趨勢，進而導致逕流量與輸砂量呈增加趨勢，尤以豐水期增幅較為顯著。水庫進水量之年平均變化幅度相對有限，月季尺度則呈現夏季增加、冬季減少之趨勢。隨著需水量提升，缺水指標開始增加，需針對高需水情境提出供水策略。進一步探討不同庫容下之可靠度變化，結果指出庫容對供水系統穩定性具有影響，合理規劃庫容可有效提升供水系統於水文條件變動下之穩定性。生態模擬方面，魚類在未來氣候情境下之不適合棲息面積普遍增加，懸浮泥砂濃度上升亦加劇生存壓力，顯示氣候變遷對流域生態環境構成潛在威脅，未來應於水資源規劃中納入生態調適與保育考量，以提升整體流域系統之永續性。

Taiwan's steep topography and concentrated rainfall during the wet season, coupled with climate change, have led to uneven spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and increased challenges in water resource management. This study utilizes the Sedimentation and River Hydraulics – Watershed Model (SRH-W) and incorporates five General Circulation Models (GCM) to simulate runoff and sediment yield for a baseline period (1995–2014) and a long-term future period (2081–2100). Trend analyses were conducted to assess potential changes, and the reliability of constructing a coastal reservoir under future climate conditions was evaluated. To integrate ecological considerations, fish habitat suitability was analyzed based on indicators such as water depth, flow velocity, and suspended sediment concentration, with changes in the proportion of unsuitable habitat areas used to assess potential impacts on aquatic life. The simulation results indicate an increasing trend in future precipitation, leading to higher runoff and sediment yield, especially during the wet season. As water demand increases, water scarcity indicators also rise, highlighting the need for adaptive water supply strategies under high-demand scenarios. Reliability analyses show that reservoir storage capacity significantly influences the stability of the water supply system; appropriately planned reservoir volumes can enhance system resilience under changing hydrological conditions. In terms of ecological impact, the area of unsuitable habitat for fish is projected to increase under future climate scenarios, with elevated suspended sediment concentrations further exacerbating survival stress. These findings suggest that climate change poses a potential threat to watershed ecosystems, underscoring the need to incorporate ecological adaptation and conservation measures into future water resource planning to enhance the sustainability of the overall watershed system.

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