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研究生: 方巧筑
Fang, Qiao-Zhu
論文名稱: 整合縱貫 eGFR 軌跡、臨床問卷與尿液代謝體學之多模態深度學習存活預測與風險分層用於糖尿腎臟病
Multimodal Deep Learning for Survival Prediction and Risk Stratification in Diabetic Kidney Disease: Integrating Longitudinal eGFR, Clinical Questionnaires, and Urinary Metabolomics
指導教授: 賀保羅
Horton, Paul
共同指導: 陳秀玲
Chen, Hsiu-Ling
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電機資訊學院 - 資訊工程學系
Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 122
中文關鍵詞: 糖尿腎臟病非標靶代謝體學存活分析多模態深度學習跨模態注意力
外文關鍵詞: diabetic kidney disease, multimodal learning, survival analysis, crossmodal attention, untargeted metabolomics
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  • 糖尿腎臟病(DKD)是全球終末期腎臟病的主要成因,然而現有風險評估工具多仰賴單一模態臨床指標,難以捕捉疾病進展的多因子複雜性。本研究提出一個多模態存活分析框架,整合三類異質資料——縱向估算腎絲球過濾率(estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate,eGFR) 時序紀錄、飲食與環境暴露問卷、雙離子尿液代謝體學(ESI+/ESI− Thermo Scientific hybrid quadrupole-Orbitrap mass spectrometers)——針對100 位DKD 病人(事件發生率70%)預測疾病快速進展風險。
    各模態由專屬編碼器處理:eGFR 特徵經線性混合效應模型(LMM)提取後輸入 MLP-Cox 網路;問卷特徵透過一致性穩定選擇器篩選,以七種隨機種子深度學習集成模型訓練;代謝體資料則先進行單變量 Cox 篩選(FDR $<$ 0.10),將幾千個代謝物縮減至 200 個,再分離子模式進行主成分分析(每模式取 20 個主成分),並以自動編碼器預訓練初始化。每個編碼器輸出 64 維嵌入向量,依序通過跨模態注意力層與軟注意力門控融合模組整合,最終接入 Cox 比例風險頭進行存活預測。
    在五折交叉驗證下,融合模型的一致性指數(C-index)達0.8725 ± 0.0717,顯著優於所有單模態基準:eGFR(0.8365 ± 0.0791)、問卷(0.7015 ± 0.0524)及代謝體學(0.6999 ± 0.0363)。軟注意力門控權重分析顯示各模態貢獻互補(eGFR:46.4%,問卷:26.0%,代謝體:27.6%),且跨折未出現門控崩塌現象。SHAP 分析揭示:追蹤年數與eGFR 變異度為時序分支的主要驅動特徵;環境污染暴露評分與eGFR–HbA1c 交互項為問卷分支的領先指標;雙離子代謝體的判別性主成分則提供獨立的風險資訊。Kaplan–Meier三組風險分層曲線呈現清晰的存活差異,且Mann–Whitney 檢定確認預測風險分數在事件與設限病人之間具統計顯著區隔(p = 0.0046)。
    本研究結果證實,透過統一深度學習框架整合縱向臨床量測、生活暴露問卷與非標靶代謝體學,可大幅提升 DKD 進展預測效能,超越任何單一模態。模組化架構亦支援未來擴充影像資料與多中心驗證,為個人化腎臟病管理平台奠定可擴展的技術基礎。

    Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is one of the leading causes of end-stage renal disease worldwide. Yet, existing risk stratification tools rely predominantly on single modality clinical markers and fail to capture the complex, multi-factorial nature of disease progression. This study presents a multimodal survival analysis framework that integrates three heterogeneous data sources—longitudinal eGFR trajectories, dietary and environmental exposure questionnaires, and dual-ion urinary metabolomics (ESI+/ESI− Thermo Scientific hybrid quadrupole-Orbitrap mass spectrometers)—to predict the risk of rapid DKD progression in a cohort of 100 patients (event rate: 70%).
    A dedicated encoder processes each modality: eGFR features are extracted via a linear mixed-effects model (LMM) and fed into an MLP-Cox network; questionnaire features are selected through a concordance-based stability selector and trained with a seven-seed deep learning ensemble; and metabolomics data undergo univariate Cox screening (FDR < 0.10), reducing a few thousand features to 200, followed by per-mode PCA (20 components per ion mode) and autoencoder re training. Each encoder produces a 64-dimensional embedding, which is fused through a Cross-Modal Attention layer and a soft-attention Gated Fusion module. The combined representation is passed to a Cox proportional hazards model for survival prediction.
    Under five-fold cross-validation, the proposed fusion model achieved a Concordance Index (C-index) of 0.8725 ± 0.0717, outperforming all unimodal baselines: eGFR (0.8365 ± 0.0791), questionnaire (0.7015 ± 0.0524), and metabolomics (0.6999 ± 0.0363). Soft-attention gate weights revealed complementary contributions from modalities (eGFR: 46.4%, questionnaire: 26.0%, metabolomics: 27.6%) and no gate collapse across folds. SHAP analysis identified follow-up duration and eGFR variability as dominant temporal signals, environmental pollution exposure and the eGFR–HbA1c interaction as leading clinical features, and discriminative PCA components from dual-ion metabolomics as independent risk contributors. Kaplan–Meier stratification into three risk groups demonstrated clear survival separation, and predicted risk scores showed statistically significant discrimination between event and censored patients (Mann–Whitney U, p = 0.0046).
    These findings demonstrate that integrating longitudinal clinical measurements, lifestyle exposure questionnaires, and untargeted metabolomics within a unified deep learning framework substantially improves DKD progression prediction beyond that of any single modality. The modular architecture supports future extensions to imaging data and multi-center validation, offering a scalable foundation for personalized kidney disease management.

    中文摘要 i Abstract iii Acknowledgements v Contents viii List of Tables xii List of Figures xiii Glossary xv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background and Motivation 1 1.2 Research Objectives 3 2 Related Works 5 2.1 Diabetic kidney disease 5 2.1.1 Pathogenesis of Diabetic Kidney Disease 5 2.1.2 Current methods for DKD risk assessment and diagnosis 7 2.1.3 New perspectives provided by metabolomics 8 2.1.4 Limitations of single-timepoint assessment and the value of longitudinal monitoring 10 2.2 Longitudinal eGFR Trajectory Modeling 11 2.2.1 Clinical significance of rapid progression and the definition challenge 11 2.2.2 Linear Mixed-Effect Models in renal research 13 2.3 Dietary and Environmental Risk Factors in DKD 14 2.3.1 Dietary patterns and progression 14 2.3.2 Environmental exposures and renal toxicity 15 2.3.3 Questionnaire-based assessment in clinical research 16 2.4 Metabolomics in DKD Research 17 2.4.1 Metabolomics Overview 17 2.4.2 Biological interpretation of metabolic labeling 19 2.5 Machine Learning and Deep Learning for DKD Risk Prediction 20 2.5.1 Traditional machine learning approaches 20 2.5.2 Deep learning for clinical time series 22 2.5.3 Multimodal learning in healthcare 23 2.5.4 Model interpretability 25 2.5.5 Model evaluation and feature importance analysis 26 2.6 Future Perspectives and Challenges 28 2.6.1 Technical challenges and development directions 28 2.6.2 Challenges in clinical translation and application 28 2.6.3 Multi-omics integration and personalized medicine applications 29 3 Proposed Scheme 31 3.1 Study Design 31 3.2 Data Collection and Ethical Statements 34 3.3 eGFR-Based Survival Analysis Module 34 3.3.1 Outcome Definition 34 3.3.2 Feature Extraction via Linear Mixed Effects Model 35 3.3.3 Model Architecture 37 3.4 Questionnaire-Based Survival Analysis Module 37 3.4.1 Feature Engineering 37 3.4.2 Feature Selection 39 3.4.3 Deep Learning Encoder Architecture 41 3.4.4 Loss Function and Training 41 3.4.5 Stacking Ensemble 42 3.5 Metabolomics-Based Survival Analysis Module 42 3.5.1 Dual-Ion Data Preprocessing 42 3.5.2 Univariate Cox Feature Screening 43 3.5.3 Dimensionality Reduction 44 3.5.4 Model Architecture and Two-Phase Training 45 3.5.5 Class-Imbalance Handling 45 3.5.6 Multi-Seed Training and Flip Detection 46 3.6 Multimodal Survival Fusion Model 46 3.6.1 Overview 46 3.6.2 Modality Dropout 46 3.6.3 Cross-Modal Attention 47 3.6.4 Gated Fusion 47 3.6.5 Fusion Cox Head and Combined Loss 48 3.7 Training Strategy and Evaluation 48 3.7.1 Loss Function 49 3.7.2 Cross-Validation and Optimization 49 3.7.3 Evaluation Metric 50 3.7.4 Survival Curve Estimation 50 3.7.5 Hyperparameter Selection 51 3.7.6 Reproducibility 51 4 Performance Evaluation 52 4.1 Experimental Setup 52 4.2 Unimodal Baseline Models 52 4.2.1 eGFR Longitudinal Model 52 4.2.2 Questionnaire / Clinical-Feature Model 53 4.2.3 Metabolomics Dual-Ion Model 55 4.3 Multimodal Fusion Model 55 4.4 Ablation Study and Modality Contribution Analysis 56 4.4.1 Cross-Model Comparison 56 4.4.2 Soft-Attention Gate Weight Analysis 59 4.5 Model Interpretability 60 4.5.1 SHAP Feature Importance 60 4.5.2 Fusion Embedding Projection 62 4.6 Clinical Risk Stratification 64 4.6.1 Kaplan–Meier Risk Group Curves 64 4.6.2 Risk Score Distribution 66 4.6.3 Individual Survival Curves 67 4.7 Summary 67 4.8 Limitations 69 4.9 Future Work 70 5 Conclusions 73 References 76

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