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研究生: 汪奕儒
Wang, Yi-Ru
論文名稱: 定期式投資策略研究
Periodic Investment Strategy Research
指導教授: 梁少懷
Liang, Shao-Huai
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 20
中文關鍵詞: 定期式投資ETF定期定額定期不定額定期定值
外文關鍵詞: Periodic investment strategy, Dollar-cost averaging, Value averaging, ETF
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  • 本文主要探討三種定期投資模式:定期定額、定期不定額和定期定值之投資績效表現,實際模擬回測2011至2020共計10年的投資狀況,並以元大台灣五十ETF(代碼:0050)為投資標的。主要比較內容為三種模式在2020年期末時的投資報酬率、投資期間報酬和現金流波動度、期末的資產狀態,並分析上述三種定期投資模式分別適合何種類型的投資人。
    根據研究結果,定期定值擁有較高的報酬率,但也擁有最大的報酬率波動和現金流波動;定期不定額擁有次高的報酬率,其報酬率波動和現金流波動位居定期定值和定期定額之間;定期定額之報酬率為三者中最低,但其投資期間報酬波動和現金流波動度是三者中最低。考量風險後的報酬率,定期不定額之表現最佳,定期定額次之,定期定值則是最後。定期定額和定期不定額模式適合擁有穩定的現金流來源、不喜歡報酬波動太劇烈、追求長期投資和存股的投資人。定期定值模式較適合不想如定期定額和定期不定額般長期持有、對於現金流擁有較專業安排及調取能力,且願意承擔較大的風險換取較高額報酬率之投資人。
    本文藉由研究三種定期式投資策略(定期定額、定期不定額、定期定值)實際模擬投資回測的績效以提供投資者參考及比較合種投資策略較適合自己的投資理念,並使對投資較無概念的投資人閱讀後具有一定的理解和方向。

    The main purpose of this paper is to compare the result of backtesting Taiwan stock market by using three kinds of periodic investment strategy, which are Dollar-Cost Averaging, Transformed Dollar-Cost Averaging and Value averaging, and the investment target is Yuanta Taiwan 50 ETF (code: 0050). The comparisons include return on asset, return's volatility, cash flow's volatility and the asset status at the end of investing period. At the end of this paper will analyze which types of investors are suitable for the above three periodic investment models.
    According to the empirical result, value averaging has the highest rate of return, but it also has the largest return's volatility and cash flow's volatility; Transformed dollar-cost averaging has the second highest rate of return, and its return's volatility and cash flow's volatility are among value averaging and dollar-cost averaging; Dollar-cost averaging has the lowest rate of return, and it has the lowest return's volatility and cash flow's volatility. As for risk-adjusted return, transformed dollar-cost averaging has the best performance, dollar-cost averaging is in 2nd place, value averaging has the lowest risk-adjusted return.
    Dollar-cost averaging and transformed dollar-cost averaging are suitable for investors who have stable cash flow, don't like high volatility, and pursue long-term investing period. Value averaging is more suitable for investors who don't want to invest for a long time, and willing to take higher risk in exchange for higher rate of return.

    中文摘要 i 英文摘要 ii 目錄 v 表目錄 vi 圖目錄 vii 第一章緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧及研究問題 4 一、ETF 4 二、定期式投資 5 三、研究問題 6 第三章 研究模型設計 7 一、投資策略模型 7 二、績效評估與比較 10 三、資料來源 11 第四章 實證結果 12 一、各投資模式參數設定 12 二、報酬率分析 12 三、風險分析 13 四、期末成果 15 五、四種投資模式適合的投資人類型 17 第五章 結論 18 參考文獻 19

    英文文獻
    Brennan, M. J., et al. (2005), “Dollar Cost Averaging.” Review of Finance 9(4), 509-535.
    Constantinides, G. M. (1979), “A Note on the Suboptimality of Dollar-Cost Averaging as an Investment Policy.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 14(2), 443-450
    Dubil, R. (2005), “Lifetime Dollar Cost Averaging.” Journal of Financial Planning 18(10), 86-90
    Frino, A. and Gallagher, D. R. (2001), “Tracking S&P Index Funds.” Journal of Portfolio Management 28(1), 44-55
    Hayley, S. (2010), “Dynamic Strategy Bias of IRR and Modified IRR-The Case of Value Averaging.” SSRN ID: 1606347
    Leggio, K. B. and Lien, D. (2003), “An Empirical Examination of the Effectiveness of Dollar-Cost Averaging Using Downside Risk Performance Measures.” Journal of Economics and Finance 27(2), 211-223
    Malkiel, B. G. (2003), “Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets.” European Financial Management 9(1), 1-10
    Marshall, P. S. (2000), “A Statistical Comparison Of Value Averaging VS. Dollar CostAveraging And Random Investment Techniques.” Journal of Financial and Strategic Decisions 13(1), 87-99
    Rompotis, G. G. (2009), “Active vs. Passive Management: New Evidence from Exchange Traded Funds.” SSRN ID: 1337708.
    Rudd, A. (1980), “Optimal Selection of Passive Investment.” Financial Management 9(1), 57-66
    Statman, M. (1995), “A Behavioral Framework for Dollar-Cost Averaging.” Journal of Portfolio Management, 70-78
    Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Journal of the Econometric Society 47(2), 263-292

    中文文獻
    朱盈儒, 許溪南, 何怡滿(2013), “整筆投資與定期定額投資績效之比較.” 企業管理學報, 第98期, 49-76
    呂晏菁, 黃明官, 馬珂(2013), “指數股票型基金最適定期式計量投資模式之探討-以台灣五十ETF為例.” 商略學報, 第5卷第3期, 203-227
    林淑瑜, 池福灶, 黃上晏(2016), “加權指數移動平均法則獲利率研究-日本、韓國、台灣實證.” Journal of Commercial Modernization, 99-114
    張婉琪, 黃明官, 馬珂(2019), “個別股票定期式投資策略之應用方法與實證績效探討-以台灣股票市場為例.” 商略學報, 第11卷第4期, 307-334
    黃明官, 林惠玉(2007), “股票型共同基金定期式投資策略之方式比較探討與績效實證分析.” 創新與管理, 第四卷第一期, 135-164
    孫煌正(2006), “基金投資-有效率的定期不定額研究.” 國立政治大學金融研究所碩士論文
    黃志祥, 洪驍毅(2010), “改善定期定額投資策略之基金報酬研究-以台灣股票型基金為例.” 臺灣經濟金融月刊, 第四十六卷第六期, 8-39

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