本文以G. Feder的兩部門模型來驗證印度遵行計劃經濟下，提振重工業之發展對於其他產業是否能產生直接貢獻與間接的跨部門外溢效果（inter-section externality），進而裨益整體的經濟成長；同時也檢測重工業部門之邊際要素生產力(marginal productivity of factors)，是否較非重工業部門具有效率。此外，本文也利用虛擬變數（dummy variables）來檢驗印度於1985年對外經濟的首次開放改革，以及1991年的進一步全面開放管制。模型中，自變數為投資佔總產值的比例、勞動成長率、重工業產出成長率，以及重工業產出成長率與重工業產出佔總產出比例的乘積，來解釋印度的經濟成長。而進行迴歸分析前，本文也對該時間序列資料，進行變異數非齊一性（heteroskedasticity）以及自我相關（autoregression）等必要的檢定，以提升實證結果的可信度。
　　由實証分析之主要結果顯示，勞動與固定資本的形成對於印度經濟成長的貢獻，具有統計上顯著的貢獻，此結果符合透過生產函數中勞動與有形的資本累積之變化，來影響整體經濟成長的一般成長來源（source of growth）之假設。重工業產出成長率的係數估計值，確實呈現顯著的正影響，可知重工業經由跨部門之外溢效果可提振國內其他產業，以達經濟成長上的目的。由估計係數可間接求得兩部門邊際生產力的差異比率，顯示重工業之邊際要素生產力確比非重工業部門來得不具有效率。而兩次歷史性的開放改革，1985年的新經濟政策則可能因政策與經濟發展的不配套，因而產生負面的影響；至於1991年的經濟自由化，則對於其經濟成長，呈現顯著的正面影響。

　　This study makes use of G. Feder's two-sector model to examine the effect and the inter-section externality of the heavy industrial development on India's economic growth which has been heavily influenced by various central plans. The import substitution strategy, especially from 1947 to 1990, emphasizes the development of "heavy industry". In this article, a comparison of marginal productivity of factors between "heavy industry" and "non-heavy industry" is conducted. Furthermore, we also examine the effects of the "New Economic Policy" for industrial liberalization in 1985, the second "Liberalization Policy" in 1991, and the political instability by employing dummy variables. In this two-sector model, accounts for the economic growth from the independent variables are the ratio of investment to total output, labor growth rate, growth rate of heavy industry output and the ratio of heavy industrial output to total output. For robustness, the heteroskedasticity and autoregression tests are applied to the time-series data before estimating the regression.
　　The extimated results suggest that the increase in the output of heavy industry, the labor and investment growth are statistically significantly conductive to the increase in economic growth. In other words, the results tally with general theory of source of growth and realize that the heavy industry promoted other industries indirectly through inter-section externality to achieve the target of economic growth. In addition, the component of marginal productivity differential can be calculated given the estimate of the heavy industry parameter. The result is negative, showing the marginal productivity of the heavy industry is lower than the non-heavy industry. The departure in 1985 and the political instability are displayed statistically significantly negative; while the role of the economic reform in 1991 is presented significantly positive.

一、中文部分

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3. 林承節：《印度獨立後的政治經濟社會發展史》（北京：崑崙出版社，2003年4月）。
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8. 陳明郎：《經濟成長》，（台北：華泰文化事業公司，1999年5月）。
9. 張世昌；《一本印度生意經》，(台北市：中華民國對外貿易發展協會，2001年7月)。
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11.趙伯東：《當代南亞國際關係》(北京：中國社會科學出版社，2003年4月)。
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二、英文部分

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三、網路部分

1. 相關印度官方網址：(1) http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2001-02/tables.htm（2003年10月）(2) http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2001-02/social.htm（2003年10月）。
2. 印度-台北協會網址：http://india.com.tw/big5/newsletter/ita_speech.htm（2003年9月）。
3. 國貿局網址：http://www.trade.gov.tw/bi_trade/index_4.htm（2003年3月）。
4. 文明的足跡，《印度的經濟改革和經濟發展》，網址：http://wmdzj.xiloo.com
/India/Imdia-1.htm (2004年4月)。
5. 奇摩新聞網網址：http://tw.news.yahoo.com/040514/39/neil.htm1. (2004年5月)。
6. World Trade Organization (WTO)網址：http://www.wto.org/wto/english/tratop_e/ tpr_e/tp195_e.htm.（2003年10月）。
7. World Bank, "India at a glance,"網址：http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata /aag/ind_aag.pdf（2004年3月）。
8. Asia Development Bank網址：http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indica
tors /2002/default.asp（2003年10月）。

四、報紙
許玉君：〈印度、大陸拼經濟─龜兔賽跑〉，《聯合報》，2004年4月18日，C2版。