2016年《公職人員選舉罷免法》修法後，下修罷免的提案門檻、連署門檻和通過門檻，使立法委員罷免案出現罷免門檻低於當選票數的「少數凌駕多數」現象，不僅較以往更可能被罷免，不同罷免案也會因不同的罷免門檻，在罷免難度上有所差異。刪除舊制罷免不得宣傳之規定，更為罷免案增添許多不確定性與新契機。本研究從過往文獻較少討論的反罷免方角度出發，探討面對條件更苛刻的罷免規定，罷免案難度是否會影響被罷免立法委員和其所屬或親近政黨之臉書反罷免策略的制定？又立法委員與其所屬或親近政黨的反罷免策略是否有差異？

本研究以2017年黃國昌罷免案、2021年陳柏惟罷免案與2022年林昶佐罷免案為研究對象，透過內容分析法考察三位被罷免立委與其所屬或親近政黨在反罷免競選期間的「臉書主被動發文」、「臉書反動員與動員發文」和「臉書情緒訴求發文」等反罷免策略。研究結果發現，各別罷免案的難度差異，會影響被罷免的立法委員與其所屬或親近政黨的反罷免策略。

首先，當罷免難度越低，立委越可能被罷免時，立委與政黨越可能採取主動攻擊的策略，政黨較立委更常主動攻擊。被動反擊的部分則未有顯著差異，然而立委與政黨越接近投票日更可能主動攻擊與被動反擊。其次，罷免難度越低越可能採取動員策略，罷免難度最高的黃國昌罷免案較少發布罷免相關貼文，本研究認為這是所謂「間接式的反動員策略」。最後，情緒訴求發文與二元勝算對數模型分析的結果顯示，罷免案難度越高，立委越不可能被罷免時，立委和政黨越可能訴諸正面情緒。然而罷免案難度對情緒訴求策略的影響主要表現在政黨上，立委的情緒訴求策略較可能受個人特質或意識形態影響。此外，不論罷免難度，越接近罷免投票日，立委與政黨皆會增加訴諸熱情與同情等正面情緒的發文。

本研究結果除彰顯政治人物的反罷免策略研究確實有其必要性，開創未來其他層級之政治人物反罷免策略研究的契機，也顯示除了傳統法制層面的研究外，罷免研究也能結合一般競選理論或公投競選理論與情緒訴求等面向，打開未來罷免研究進一步融合政治傳播理論的可能性。

Since the 2016 revision of the “Civil Servants Election and Recall Act”, legislators in Taiwan have fallen into a more serious crisis of being recalled. The content of the amendments will also have a major impact on the anti-recall strategies of future legislators. Draw from the results of content analysis of being recalled legislators and their affiliated or close parties’ “active attack and passive counterattack posts”, “demobilization and mobilization posts” and “emotional appeal posts” on Facebook during the anti-recall campaign period, this study finds that the differences in the difficulty of individual recall cases will affect the anti-recall strategies of the recalled legislators and their affiliated or close parties. Moreover, the lower the difficulty of recall case, the more likely legislators, and parties to adopt an active attack strategy. In addition, the lower the difficulty of recall, the more likely a mobilization strategy will be adopted. Finally, the higher the difficulty of recall, the more likely ledislators and parties will appeal to positive emotions.

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