1990 年代初期，當全球迎來第三波民主化浪潮之際，白俄羅斯卻成為少數逆勢民族倒退的國家。本論文主以挖掘當地一手報導，解開歷史謎團，尤其：為何在建國初期具備相對開放政治空間的白俄羅斯 ，仍未能實現民主化？針對傳統民主化理論解釋力不足， 本論文採用歷史制度論與社會條件論的雙重歷史社會學途徑，結合案例研究與深度檔案文本分析，系統性剖析涵蓋政府、社會與市場的 5 大面向動態交互作用。

研究發現，白俄羅斯民主的崩潰並非單純源於強人政治，而是四大結構性因素交互作用的歷史產物：首先，憲政設計的先天缺陷導致行政權獨大並架空立法權；其次，反對派過度聚焦抽象的民族語言建構而忽視迫切的民生經濟，導致與基層社會斷裂；第三，盧卡申科成功操弄民粹式的直接民主（公投）以瓦解代議制度；最後且最關鍵者，乃是長期俄羅斯化下的認同真空與對舊蘇聯體制的經濟依賴。這些因素迫使社會大眾在生存焦慮驅動下，主動締結了一份「以政治自主換取麵包與秩序」 的社會契約。此一結合政府、社會與市場的重重結構鎖定，最終確立了白俄羅斯獨特的威權鞏固路徑。

This research investigates the historical puzzle of Belarus’s deviation from the global Third Wave of Democratization between 1991 and 1996. While neighboring post-Soviet states transitioned toward democracy, Belarus rapidly reverted to authoritarianism. The study aims to identify the structural and agency-based factors driving this regression by analyzing the period from independence to the establishment of the "super-presidential" system. Employing a dual historical sociological approach that combines Historical Institutionalism and Social Condition Theory, this research utilizes process tracing and in-depth archival analysis of primary sources, including contemporary newspapers and memoirs. The analysis focuses on the dynamic interactions across five specific dimensions: political institutions, the state apparatus, opposition forces, social networks, and the economic system within the civil society which treated as the mediator between nation-building and democratic transition.

The results reveal that the democratic collapse was not solely the result of strongman politics but a product of four interacting structural factors: flawed constitutional design creating executive dominance; an opposition disconnected from economic realities due to an obsession with abstract nationalism; the manipulation of direct democracy (referendums) to dismantle representative institutions; and deep-seated economic dependence on Russia combined with a weak national identity. The study concludes that pervasive survival anxiety drove the public to accept an authoritarian social contract, trading political freedom for economic stability and order. This specific configuration of government, society, and market forces created a path-dependent trajectory toward authoritarian consolidation.

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