| 研究生: |
蘇霜吉 Su, Shuang-Chi |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
列車服務與票價決策之整合模式-以台灣高鐵為例 An integrated model of service planning and pricing with the data of THSR |
| 指導教授: |
李治綱
Lee, Chi-Kang |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2006 |
| 畢業學年度: | 94 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 104 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 羅吉特指派模式 、差別定價 、模擬退火法 、雙層次數學規劃 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Logit model, Simulated Annealing, Bi-Level Programming, Pricing |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:99 下載:3 |
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列車服務計畫會影響營運者的營運成本,而訂價策略會影響營運者的票箱收入,因此在高鐵的特許營運期內,列車服務設計與訂價策略將會是影響收益的關鍵因素。因此,本研究的主要目的為考慮旅客需求變動下,建構一個列車服務與定價決策之整合模式,以追求營運者的利潤極大化,並制定一套最佳列車營運班表以及最適票價結構,使得高速鐵路營運者達到最大收益。
由於營運者追求營運收益最大化,而旅客追求旅行成本最小,雙方的目標不同但決策卻又互相影響,此種情況可以利用雙層次數學規劃之概念來建構模式。在雙層次數學規劃模式中,下層模式為旅客需求指派問題,將旅客之選擇行為轉換成一羅吉特指派模式,並以旅客彈性需求函數來表示其他市場競爭的影響,而列車乘載之容量即為下層問題的限制式。上層模式為列車服務與票價決策之整合模式,制定符合旅運需求的列車服務計畫,並依照不同的列車服務來做差別定價,因此每小時的發車頻率與交通部的費率規定為主要限制式。本研究採用Simulated Annealing與Hooke and Jeeves’ method求解上層模式;並採用Bregman’s balancing method 求解下層模式。
利用台灣高鐵的資料進行實證測試後,可得到以下幾點結論:
1.測試結果驗證了模式推導與模式求解演算法之 正確性與可行性。
2.本研究所建構的模式可以反映出不同的列車服務 與票價決策下,旅客選擇列車服務的行為,並求 算營運者獲得最大利益的營院班表與訂價策略。
3.先前的研究指出列車服務計畫的良窳攸關營運收 入,不同的訂價策略也會影響營運收入,本研究 嘗試將此兩項因素整合在同一模式中,其結果顯 示營運者所增加的利潤會大於各自進行列車服務 設計與差別訂價的利潤。
Taiwan high-speed rail (HSR) is about 350 kilometer long, located on the western corridor with 80% population of Taiwan. It is a build-operate-transfer (BOT) case, and the proportion of fixed cost for HSR line is very high. Thus, it is important to Taiwan High Speed Rail Company (THSR) to design the service plans and the pricing strategies well for driving profitability. In order to keep supply suitable to market demand, the HSR line may like to design its service plan twice a year or seasonally, and examine its price plan seasonally or monthly. In making a service or price plan, we have to consider most elements in the product line together, with regard to passengers’ decision of a door-to-door travel.
In order to simplify the problem, we want to establish a demand responsive service planning and pricing method for the product-line of THSR. We consider both the operator and the passengers’ objectives, and their leader-follower and non-cooperative relationship. In a bi-level program, an integrated model of service planning and pricing method of operator is the upper-level problem, and a travel demand assignment model of the passenger is the lower-level problem. In the upper-level problem, operator can use the service planning to reduce the operating cost and the price discrimination method to get maximum profit, but should be restricted by the government. In the lower-level problem, passengers’ service choice is formulated as a logit choice function, market competition is represented by a linear demand function, and service capacity is written as a constraint for each service section.
In a numerical case study, we present the results of the integrated model of service planning and pricing method, and the convergence and sensitivity of the integrated model to model parameters. We find the optimal train service timetable, the optimal fare rate, and the maximum profit of operator by the integrated model. The case study shows reasonable and promising results for the flexibility and capability of the integrated model of service planning and pricing method.
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