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研究生: 賴科翰
Lai, Ko-Han
論文名稱: 探討動能策略與股利對於股票報酬之影響-----以台灣市場為例
Momentum Strategy and Dividend Payout: Evidence from Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 黃炳勳
Huang, Ping-hsun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 46
中文關鍵詞: 動能策略股利政策行為模型理論心理偏誤
外文關鍵詞: Momentum Strategy, Dividend Payout, Behavioral Models, Psychological biases.
相關次數: 點閱:139下載:9
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  • 本研究旨在探討公司股利政策對於存在於台灣股票市場中之動能策略之影響。所使用之觀察樣本總區間從2007年至2016年,共觀察1548家除金融業外在台灣股票市場上市上櫃興櫃之公司。實證結果顯示在發放股利之動能策略投資組合,其報酬高於未發放之動能策略投資組合。另外,傾向維持股利發放之動能策略中贏家(winner)股票具有較輸家(loser)高的報酬,相反地,未維持股利發放之動能策略中輸家股票具有較贏家高的報酬。最後,購買增加股利之贏家並出售減少股利之贏家具有超額(異常)報酬。實證中也發現若將動能策略再細分為發放股利與未發放股利兩類投資組合,購買發放股利之動能策略投資組合並出售未發放股利之動能策略投資組合具有顯著的超額(異常)報酬。此實證結果來自於投資人對於未發放股利之贏家以及發放股利之輸家股票反應不足,符合動能策略之行為模型理論,認為動能策略之報酬來增強為來自投資人對於公司發布之產生心理偏誤所致。

    This paper empirically investigates the relationship between dividend payout and momentum strategy. A sample of 1548 non-financial firms' stocks that listed on TWSE and Taiwan OTC market from 2007 to 2016 was utilized. The empirical results show that payer momentum portfolio outperforms non-payer momentum portfolio. Additionally, dividend maintaining winners show higher return than dividends maintaining losers. By contrast, non-payer losers outperform non-payer winners. Finally, buying winners that increased their dividends and selling winners that decreased their dividends reports statistically positively significant abnormal return. The results also show that buying payer momentum portfolio and selling non-payer portfolio generates statistically positively significant abnormal return. This result is based on investors' underreaction to winners-non-payers and losers-payers, which is consistent with the behavioral models' prediction, suggesting that the momentum profit is enhanced by investors' psychological biases to new information.

    摘要 I Abstract II Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Chapter 2. Literature Review 6 2.1 Momentum Strategy 6 2.2 Dividend Signaling 7 2.3 Behavioral Models of Momentum Strategy 8 2.4 Maintaining Dividends and Changes in Dividends 9 2.5 Effectiveness of the research 11 2.6 Hypothesis 11 Chapter 3. Data and Methodology 13 3.1 Data 13 3.2 Portfolio construction 13 3.3 Abnormal Return Calculation and Estimation 14 3.3.1 The Capital Asset Price Model 15 3.3.2 The Fama-French Three Factors Model 16 Chapter 4. Empirical Results 19 4.1. Momentum Profits by Dividend Payment 19 4.1.1 Equal-Weighted Average Returns 19 4.1.2 Value-Weighted Average Returns 20 4.2 Momentum Returns by Effects of Changes in Dividends 20 4.2.1 Equal-Weighted Average Returns 21 4.2.2 Value-Weighted Average Returns 22 Chapter 5. Robustness 24 5.1 Earnings growth 24 5.1.1 Equal-Weighted Average Returns 24 5.1.2 Value-Weighted Average Returns 25 5.2 Book-to-market values 26 5.2.1 Equal-Weighted Average Returns 27 5.2.2 Value-Weighted Average Returns 27 5.3 Size effect 28 5.3.1 Equal-Weighted Average Returns 29 5.3.2 Value-Weighted Average Returns 30 Chapter 6. Conclusion 31 Appendix 33 References 43

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