摘要
本研究主要是探討國內外券商推薦資訊是否會因為經歷不同的景氣循環階段而產生不同的資訊內涵。利用領先指標區分不同的景氣循環，並且比較在景氣擴張和衰退期時，券商推薦股票的報酬率。利用事件研究法區分2005年到2007年6月的景氣循環期間。另外探討哪些因素會影響券商推薦資訊精準度，考慮券商本身特徵及推薦個股的產業特性。
實證研究結果發現，整體而言，不論是在景氣衰退或是擴張時期，外國券商的推薦資訊能獲得較高的報酬。並且能夠避免資訊外洩的問題，投資人比較不用擔心會面對被坑殺的狀況。在景氣衰退期間發現當景氣波動幅度較大時，推薦股票會有較佳的表現，和以往文獻的結果一致。當本國券商的自營比率較高，也能避免「利益迴避」的問題，不會有推薦往來客戶股票的情形發生，在這種狀況下所被推薦的股票，有較佳的表現。
最後，從研究中可以發現在券商推薦的資訊中，電子業所佔的比例最高，所得到的報酬率也較佳，因為電子業佔台灣股市極重要的一部分，也是券商研究的重點所在。

Abstract
This article uses the leading indicator to catch the business cycle fluctuating, and examines the recommendations from domestic and foreign security firms during different phase of the business cycle, to compare the average cumulative abnormal return and thus examine the reliability of the firms. It also considers how the variables affected the accuracy of the forecasting ability. The sample consists of 14 security firms and 2833 data of samples.
First, the research finds the performance of foreign security firms’ recommendations are better, and the problem of divulge not as bad as the domestic security firms’. In the recession phase of the business cycle, the recommendation is worth. When the business conditions are fluctuating, the performance of recommendation is better. In addition, when the percentage of the dealer activity of domestic security firms is higher; the problem of benefit conflict is less. The recommendations are released from this kind of security firms is informativeness. From the research, we also find the recommendations about the electronic industry are more precise, because the electronic industry is very important to Taiwan’s stock market; the security firms put emphasize it.

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