脆弱性是氣候變遷研究與政策中的核心概念，在環境變遷的研究領域中自然災害的發生不必然會導致受災的結果，只有當地區（或人）對災害具有暴露或敏感的條件並缺乏調適能力，才會具有脆弱性的特質。而「整合性的指標評估」能將脆弱性的多元概念連結到現實事件中，但過去研究建立在地區間影響因素及指標重要性一致的假設下，分析結果往往忽略了地區間可能具有空間關聯性及對於災害承載能力本質上的差異，使得分析結果是具有疑義的。
故本文以雲林縣易淹水的13個鄉鎮為實證地區，嘗試改善過去指標整合過程中未考量地理空間特性的缺陷，首先利用「主成份分析法」整合指標，擷取出能夠代表地區差異的「地區發展強度」與「災害敏感地區」兩個潛在衝擊綜合指標及「都市化與醫療資源」、「短期緊急應變能力」與「長期照護能力」三個調適能力綜合指標。再藉由「空間分析方法」，找出顯著具有「高潛在衝擊」與「低調適能力」的地區，有利於提供地區決策者判斷地區對於洪災潛在的危險程度與資源分配；最後利用「地理加權的主成份分析法」，在同時考量「屬性」與「區位」資訊下，得到熱區與冷區的重要影響指標，為地區著手降低脆弱性時的參考。

Vulnerability is a central concept in climate change research and policy. An area is vulnerable only when it has been to expose to disasters. Therefore, two major features, geographic feature and social feature, are important while measuring vulnerability. Currently, many studies utilize “aggregated indices” connect multiple factors to real events and further compare the differences and intensity across regions. Nevertheless, not only the integration and weighted rationality challenge current research but the disregard of spatial correlation and disaster capacity might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerabilities.
Hence, this article applies Principle Component Analysis to flood-prone areas of Yunlin. The factors will then be classified into potential integrated indicator (local development intensity and disaster sensitive area) and adaptive integrated indicator (urbanization and medical resources, short-term emergency response capabilities and long-term care capacity). Afterwards, we apply Spatial Statistical Analysis to investigate hot-spot and cold-spot of local vulnerability. Finally, we used Geographically Weighted Principal Components Analysis to get the different key impact indices in different areas. The ultimate outcome can be referred to local disaster prevention and management.

任家強、汪景寬與孔凡文（2012）。基於空間自相關與主成份分析的城市土地集約利用空間差異研究─以遼寧省為例。省陽農業大學學報，第43卷第一期，頁39-43。
行政院國家科學委員會（2009-2011）。各層級國土空間規劃與管理之脆弱度與回復力之評估研究。
吳杰穎與黃昱翔（2011）。颱洪災害脆弱度評估指標之建立：以南投縣水里鄉為例。都市與計劃，第38卷第二期，頁195-218。
吳榮平與熊光華（2009）。都市火災風險的空間解析。中華建築學刊，第3卷第三期，頁1-12。
呂明倫與謝漢欽（2013）。鰲鼓海岸地區之生態環境脆弱度評估。作物、環境與生物資訊，第10卷第一期，頁34-43。
李欣輯、楊惠萱、廖楷民與蕭代基（2010）。水災社會脆弱性指標之建立。 建築與規劃學報，第10卷第三期，頁163-182。
林子平（2002）。都市水循環之研究─地表不透水率之調查及逕流量實測解析，國立成功大學建築學系博士論文。
林文苑（2011）。「天然災害老人弱勢族群社經脆弱度評估指標」之建立與空間聚集性分析應用。都市與計劃，第38卷第三期，頁219-243。
洪鴻智與陳令韡（2012）。颱洪災害之整合性脆弱度評估－大甲溪流域之應用。地理學報，第65卷，頁79-96。
張宜君與林宗弘（2012）。不平等的災難：921地震下的受災風險與社會階層化。人文及往會科學集刊，第24卷第二期，頁193-231。
張靜、張雨芳、濮勵杰與管馳名（2012）。基於GWR模型的城市住宅地價的時空演變研究─以江蘇省為例。地理科學，第32卷第七期，頁828-833。
葉高華（2013）。社會脆弱性可解釋九二一地震死亡率分布嗎？。思與言，第51卷第一期，頁135-153。
蕭煥章（2008）。鄉鎮市區水災脆弱性評估模式之研究。華岡地理學報，第21卷，頁1-18。
謝惠紅、鄭士仁、劉璟燁、周世昌與蕭博仁（2006）。夏季日降雨量空間分布特性之研究。農業工程學報，第52卷第一期，頁47-55。
Abson, D. J., Dougill, A. J., & Stringer, L. C. (2012). Using Principal Component Analysis for information-rich socio-ecological vulnerability mapping in Southern Africa. Applied Geography, 35(1-2), 515-524. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.08.004
Adger, N., Kelly, M. P., & Huu Ninh, N. (2004). Living with Environment Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Viet Nam. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, 367-369.
Adger, W. N. (2006). Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 268-281. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006
Alexander, D. E. (1993). Natural Disasters. Professor Department of Geology and Geography University of Massachusetts Amherst USA.: Routledge.
Arnold, M., Dilley, M., Deichmann, U., Chen, R. S., & Lerner-Lam, A. L. (2005). Natural Disaster Hotspots – A Global Risk Analysis: World Bank.
Balica, S. F. (2012). Applying the Flood Vulnerability Index as a Knowledge base for flood risk assessment CRC Press/Balkema: UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands
Begon, M., Harper, J. L., & Townsend, C. R. (1996). Ecology, individual, populations and communities. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Science.
Birkmann , J. (2006). Measuring Vulnerability to Nature Hazards. Tokyo, New York Paris: United Nations University Press.
Birkmann, J. (2007). Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales:Applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environmental Hazards, 7(1), 20-31. doi: 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.04.002
Braat, L. (1991). The predictive meaning of sustainability indicators In search of indicators of sustainable development: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Breyer, B. (2013). Exploring local variability in statistical relationships with Geographically Weighted Regression.
Canada, E. (1997). The Canada country study: climate impacts and adaptation, national summary for policymakers. Environment Canada, Ottawa.
Connor, R. F., & Hiroki, K. (2005). Development of a method for assessing flood vulnerability. Water Science and Technoligy, 51(5), 61-67.
Costa, L., & Kropp, J. P. (2012). Linking components of vulnerability in theoretic frameworks and case studies. Sustainability Science, 8(1), 1-9. doi: 10.1007/s11625-012-0158-4
Cox, R. J., Shand, T. D., & Blacka, M. J. (2009-2012). Australian Rainfall and Runoff Revision Project 10: Appropriate Safety Criteria for People(2009-2012). Australian: Water Research Laboratory
Crichton, D. (1999). The Risk Triangle. Natural Disaster Management, 102-103.
Cutter, S. L., Boruff, B. J., & Shirley, W. L. (2003). Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly, 84(2), 242-260.
Demšar, U., Harris, P., Brunsdon, C., Fotheringham, A. S., & McLoone, S. (2013). Principal Component Analysis on Spatial Data: An Overview. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103(1), 106-128. doi: 10.1080/00045608.2012.689236
Di Mauro, C. (2006). Regional vulnerability map for supporting policy definitions and implementations. Paper presented at the Multi-Hazards: Challenges for Risk Assessment, Mapping and Management, Barcelona.
Douben, N., & Ratnayake, R. (2005). Characteristic data on river floods: facts and figures. In A. J, B. E & E. M (Eds.), In Floods, from Defence to Management (pp. 11-27). London, UK: Taylor & Francis Group.
Downing, T. E. (1991). African Household Food Security: What are the Limits of Available Coping Mechanisms in Response to Climatic and Economic Variations? Bayreuther Geowissenschaftliche Arbeiten Naturwissenschaftliche Gesellschaft Bayreuth (pp. 39-67). Germany.
Füssel, H. M. (2007). Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 17(2), 155-167. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002
Füssel, H. M. (2009). Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity and impacts. In World Bank development report 2010: Development and climate change.: World Bank.
Florina, B. S. (2007). Development and Application of Flood Vulnerability Indices for Various Spatial Scales Delft, the Netherlands UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education.
Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C., & Charlton, M. (2000). Quantitative Geography. London: SAGE Publications.
Gabor, T., & Griffith, T. K. (1980). The assessment of community vulnerability to acute hazardous materials incidents. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 3, 323-333.
Gallopin, G. C. (2006). Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 293-303.
Gollini, I., Lu, B., Charlton, M., Brunsdon, C., & Harris, P. (2013). GWmodel: an R Package for Exploring Spatial Heterogeneity Using Geographically Weighted Models. Bristol, UK: Department of Civil Engineering.
Gomez, G. (2001). Combating Desertification in Mediterranean Europe: Linking Science with Stakeholders, contract EVK2-CT-2001-00109. London: King's College.
Harris, P., Brunsdon, C., & Charlton, M. (2011). Geographically weighted principal components analysis. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 25(10), 1717-1736. doi: 10.1080/13658816.2011.554838
Hinkel, J. (2011). “Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: Towards a clarification of the science–policy interface. Global Environmental Change, 21(1), 198-208. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.08.002
Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems Annual Review of Ecological System, 4, 1-23.
Hotelling, H. (1933). Analysis of a complex of statistical variables into principal components. Journal of Educational Psychology, 24(6), 417-441. doi: 10.1037/h0071325
IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jombart, T. (2008). Adeganet: A R package for the multivariate analysis of genetic markers. Bioinformatics, 24, 1403-1405.
Jorgensen, S. E. (1992). Integration of ecosystem theories: a pattern. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Kates, R. W. (1986). Review of Normal Accidents: Living With High Risk Technologies by Charles Perrow. Professional Geographer, 38(1), 121-122.
Kaźmierczak, A., & Cavan, G. (2011). Surface water flooding risk to urban communities: Analysis of vulnerability, hazard and exposure. Landscape and Urban Planning, 103(2), 185-197. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.07.008
Leichenko, R. M., & O'Brien, K. L. (2002). The Dynamics of Rural Vulnerability to Global Change: The Case of Southern Africa. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7(1), 1-18.
Liverman, D. M. (1990). Vulnerability to Global Change (pp. 8-23). Clark University, Earth Transformed Program: Worcester MA.
Lloyd, C. D. (2010). Analysing population characteristics using geographically weighted principal components analysis: A case study of Northern Ireland in 2001. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 34(5), 389-399. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.02.005
McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., & White, K. S. (2001). Climate Change 2001: Impccts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambribge: Cambridge University Press.
Norman, L. M., Villarreal, M. L., Lara-Valencia, F., Yuan, Y., Nie, W., Wilson, S., . . . Sleeter, R. (2012). Mapping socio-environmentally vulnerable populations access and exposure to ecosystem services at the U.S.–Mexico borderlands. Applied Geography, 34, 413-424. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.01.006
Pearson, K. (1901). On lines and planes of closest fit to systems of points in space. Philosophical Magazine, 2(6), 559-572.
Perez Espana, H., & Arreguin Sanchez, F. (1999). Complexity related to behaviour of stability in modelled coastal zone ecosystems. Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management 2, 129-135.
Rao, P., & Murty, B. S. (2005). Estimation of flood vulnerability index for delta. Geoscience and remote sensing symposium, 5, 3611-3614.
Rygel, L., O'Sullivan, D., & Yarnal, B. (2006). A method for constructing a social vulnerability index: an application to hurricane storm surges in a developed country. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 11(3), 741-764.
Schroter, D., Polsky, C., & Patt, A. G. (2005). Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: an Eight Step Approch. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10, 573-596.
Smith, J. M. (1992). Analyzing the mosaic structure of genes. Journal of Molecular Evolution, 34(2), 126-129.
Susman, R., Stern, J. J., & Jungers, W. (1984). Arboreality and bipedality in the Hadar hominids. Folia Primatol (Basel), 43(2-3), 113-156.
Tabachnick, B. G., & Fidell, L. S. (2006). Using Multivariate Statistics (5th Edition). Needham Heights, MA, USA: Allyn & Bacon.
Tobler, W. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46(2), 234-240.
Turner, B. L., 2nd, Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., . . . Schiller, A. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 100(14), 8074-8079. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1231335100
UN/ISDR. (2007). Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015：Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters.
Villagran, J. C. (2005). Quantitative Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Communities in the Foothills of Pacaya Volcano in Guatemala. Journal of Human Security and Development, 1(1).
White, G. F. (1942). Human adjustment to floods. Department of Geography, University of Chicago.
Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., & Davis, I. (2004). At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters (2nd ed.). London and New York, Routledge.