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研究生： 江翎綺
Chiang, Ling-chi
論文名稱： 經濟循環對執行長人格特質與企業績效關係之影響
The Influence of Economic Cycles on the Relationship between CEO Personality Traits and Firm Performance
指導教授： 張紹基
Chang, Shao-Chi
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 國際企業研究所
Institute of International Business
論文出版年： 2026
畢業學年度： 114
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 137
中文關鍵詞： 執行長人格特質 、五大人格特質 、經濟循環 、公司績效 、高階主管理論
外文關鍵詞： CEO personality, Big Five personality traits, economic cycles, firm performance, Upper Echelons Theory
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    • 本研究探討執行長（CEO）五大人格特質與公司績效之間的關聯，及其關聯是否會隨經濟循環而有所變化。結合了高階主管理論（Upper Echelons Theory）與環境—策略—績效架構（Environment–Strategy–Performance framework）。
    本研究認為，執行長的人格特質可能透過其注意力、認知框架、策略判斷、資源配置及組織行動，進一步與公司績效產生關聯；而景氣擴張與衰退所帶來的資源條件、管理裁量空間及策略需求差異，則可能改變此關聯性。
    本研究使用1992年至2015年間644家美國上市公司的7,069筆公司年度觀察值。執行長五大人格特質資料取自Harrison等人所建立的Open-Language CEO Personality Tool，並以資產報酬率（ROA）及Tobin’s Q分別衡量會計基礎與市場基礎的公司績效。經濟循環則依據NBER與FRED所提供的衰退指標進行分類。實證分析採用公司固定效果模型及公司層級叢聚標準誤。主要模型分別檢驗各項人格特質，補充模型則將五項人格特質及其與經濟衰退的交乘項同時納入分析。
    主要模型結果顯示，外向性與經濟衰退的交乘項在ROA及Tobin’s Q模型中皆呈現顯著負向關聯，表示外向性與公司績效之間的估計關聯在衰退期間變得較為不利。開放性在衰退期間亦呈現較不利的變化，其交乘項在ROA模型中達邊際顯著，並在Tobin’s Q模型中達統計顯著。然而，親和性與神經質在Tobin’s Q模型中的交乘結果與原先預期方向相反。當五項人格特質及其交乘項同時納入模型後，外向性對ROA的負向衰退交乘結果，以及親和性對Tobin’s Q的負向衰退交乘結果仍維持顯著；盡責性則在兩項績效指標中呈現正向且邊際顯著的衰退交乘結果，其餘交乘項則不再具有統計顯著性。
    整體而言，本研究結果顯示，經濟循環對執行長人格特質與公司績效關聯的調節作用，會因人格特質、績效衡量方式及模型設定而有所不同。本研究進一步將總體經濟環境視為高階主管理論的重要情境條件，並說明不存在適用於所有經濟環境與績效目標的單一最佳執行長人格特質。

    This study examines whether the associations between chief executive officers’ (CEOs’) Big Five personality traits and firm performance vary across economic cycles. Drawing on Upper Echelons Theory and the Environment–Strategy–Performance framework, this study proposes that CEO personality may be associated with firm performance through executives’ attention, cognitive framing, strategic judgment, resource allocation, and organizational actions. Economic expansions and recessions may condition this relationship by altering resource availability, managerial discretion, and the strategic demands faced by firms.
    The empirical analysis uses 7,069 firm-year observations from 644 publicly traded U.S. firms between 1992 and 2015. CEO personality measures are obtained from the Open-Language CEO Personality Tool developed by Harrison et al. Firm performance is measured using return on assets (ROA) and Tobin’s Q to capture accounting-based performance and market-based valuation, respectively. Economic conditions are classified using the NBER-based recession indicator provided by FRED. Firm fixed-effects regressions with firm-clustered standard errors are employed. The primary specifications examine each personality trait separately, while supplementary joint specifications include all five personality traits and their interactions with recession simultaneously.
    The primary results show that the interaction between extraversion and recession is negative and statistically significant for both ROA and Tobin’s Q, indicating that the estimated association between extraversion and firm performance becomes comparatively less favorable during recessions. Openness also exhibits a less favorable recession-period shift, with a marginally significant interaction for ROA and a statistically significant interaction for Tobin’s Q. However, the interactions involving agreeableness and neuroticism in the Tobin’s Q models are significant in directions opposite to the original predictions. In the joint specifications, the negative interaction between extraversion and recession remains significant for ROA, while the negative interaction between agreeableness and recession remains significant for Tobin’s Q. Conscientiousness exhibits positive and marginally significant recession interactions for both performance measures, whereas the remaining interactions become statistically insignificant.
    Overall, the findings indicate that the moderating role of economic cycles in the relationship between CEO personality and firm performance is trait-specific, outcome-specific, and sensitive to model specification. This study extends Upper Echelons Theory by identifying the macroeconomic environment as an important contextual condition and suggests that no single CEO personality profile is universally advantageous across all economic conditions and performance outcomes.

    CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Motivation 1 1.2 Research Purpose 5 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES 9 2.1 Upper Echelons Theory 9 2.2 Big Five Personality Traits 12 2.2.1 Openness to Experience 13 2.2.2 Conscientiousness 15 2.2.3 Extraversion 17 2.2.4 Agreeableness 18 2.2.5 Neuroticism 19 2.3 Macroeconomic Context and Economic Cycles 21 2.4 Hypotheses Development 24 2.4.1 Openness to Experience and Economic Cycles 26 2.4.2 Conscientiousness and Economic Cycles 28 2.4.3 Extraversion and Economic Cycles 29 2.4.4 Agreeableness and Economic Cycles 31 2.4.5 Neuroticism and Economic Cycles 33 2.5 Conceptual Framework 35 CHAPTER THREE DATA AND METHODOLOGY 38 3.1 Data Source and Integration 38 3.2 Variable Definitions 39 3.2.1 Dependent Variables 40 3.2.2 Independent Variables 40 3.2.3 Moderating Variable 42 3.2.4 Control Variables 43 3.3 Empirical Models 43 3.4 Sample Selection and Refinement 47 3.5 Descriptive Statistics and Diagnostic Tests 48 CHAPTER FOUR EMPIRICAL RESULTS 49 4.1 Sample Characteristics and Descriptive Statistics 49 4.1.1 Final Sample Composition 50 4.1.2 Full-Sample Descriptive Statistics 51 4.1.3 Descriptive Comparison between Expansionary and Recessionary Periods 54 4.2 Correlation Analysis and Diagnostic Tests 57 4.2.1 Pearson Correlation Analysis 57 4.2.2 Multicollinearity Diagnostics 60 4.3 Economic-Cycle Moderation Results for ROA 62 4.3.1 Firm Fixed-Effects Regression Results 62 4.3.2 Interpretation of the Personality and Recession Interaction Terms 64 4.4 Economic-Cycle Moderation Results for Tobin’s Q 67 4.4.1 Firm Fixed-Effects Regression Results 67 4.4.2 Interpretation of the Personality and Recession Interaction Terms 69 4.5 Joint Regression Models Including All Five Personality Traits 72 4.5.1 Joint Firm Fixed-Effects Regression Results 72 4.6 Summary of Hypothesis Testing 77 4.6.1 Hypothesis Evaluation across ROA and Tobin’s Q 77 CHAPTER FIVE DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 81 5.1 Summary of Empirical Findings 81 5.2 Discussion of Findings by Personality Trait 82 5.2.1 Openness to Experience and Economic Cycles 82 5.2.2 Conscientiousness and Economic Cycles 84 5.2.3 Extraversion and Economic Cycles 86 5.2.4 Agreeableness and Economic Cycles 89 5.2.5 Neuroticism and Economic Cycles 91 5.3 Theoretical Implications 93 5.3.1 Contextualizing Upper Echelons Theory through Economic Cycles 93 5.3.2 Distinguishing Accounting-Based and Market-Based Firm Performance 97 5.4 Managerial Implications 98 5.4.1 Context-Sensitive CEO Selection and Succession Planning 99 5.4.2 Board Oversight and Strategic Support across Economic Cycles 101 5.4.3 The Cautious Use of CEO Personality Information in Organizational Decision-Making 103 5.5 Research Limitations and Directions for Future Research 104 5.5.1 CEO Personality Measurement and Overlap among Personality Traits 105 5.5.2 Classification and Annualization of Economic Cycles 107 5.5.3 Sample Coverage and Generalizability 110 5.5.4 Model Specification, Omitted Variables, and Causal Interpretation 113 5.6 Conclusion 117 References 120

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