根據2018由IPCC（聯合國政府間氣候變遷專門委員會）發佈的全球升溫1.5℃報告，為了將全球暖化的升溫幅度限制在1.5℃以內，必須要在2050年實現二氧化碳淨排放量為零，才能過緩日益嚴重的氣候影響。因此越來越多國家開始承諾實現淨零排放，而台灣也將在此全球趨勢下，透過將溫室氣體減量及管理法修正為氣候變遷因應法，將長期減碳目標設定為2050年溫室氣體淨零排放。
為了分析政策改變對台灣的影響，本研究調查了受試者對於不同減碳政策的偏好，並且實施想像未來世代的過程，研究受試者在透過自行想像未來台灣的環境變化後，詢問受試者的想像內容，最後要求代表未來世代進行政策選擇。隨後讓受試者進行不同政策間的選擇以及對未來環境的看法，是否會選擇對未來世代更有利的政策。
本研究於2022年2月利用手機進行問卷調查，分析受試者對於淨零排放政策以及減少50%溫室氣體排放政策的偏好，並且隨機選擇一半的受試者實施想像未來世代。利用Logit Model 以及Ordered Logit Model 進行分析。發現想像未來世代的效果可以顯著增加受試者對於淨零排放政策的偏好，但對於減少50%溫室氣體排放政策的偏好沒有顯著影響。

According to the Special Report Global Warming of 1.5℃ (SR15) published by the IPCC in 2018, achieving the goal of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 is essential for global engagement. This target aims to limit global warming to 1.5℃ and mitigate the increasingly severe climate impacts. As more countries have committed to achieving net-zero emissions, Taiwan has responded to this global trend by amending the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act. The revised legislation, now called the Climate Change Response Act, sets the goal of achieving net zero emissions for Taiwan.
To analyze the implications of this policy change in Taiwan, we conducted a simulation using the Imaginary Future Generations (IFG) approach. The IFG process prompts participants to envision potential future scenarios and then respond to specific questions about their imagined future. In particular, we asked participants to spend approximately one minute imagining a future where net-zero emissions have been achieved in Taiwan. Subsequently, we posed questions to understand their perceptions of this future and whether they believe such a policy choice would be more beneficial for future generations.
We conducted an online survey and incorporated the IFG process to examine its potential influence on participants' preferences. The survey took place in February 2022 and aimed to analyze the preference for the net zero emissions scheme versus the 50% reduction in GHG emissions scheme. Half of the participants were randomly selected and exposed to the IFG approach. We utilized the Logit and Ordered Logit models for the analysis and found that IFG significantly increased the preference for the net-zero scheme but did not have the same effect on the preference for the 50% reduction in GHG emissions scheme. One possible explanation for this disparity could be that, at the time of the survey, Taiwan had not yet amended the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act to the Climate Change Response Act.

Bell, J., Poushter, J., Fagan, M., & Huang, C. (2021). Response to Climate Change, Citizens in Advanced Economies Are Willing To Alter How They Live and Work”.
Hara, K., Yoshioka, R., Kuroda, M., Kurimoto, S., & Saijo, T. (2019). Reconciling intergenerational conflicts with imaginary future generations: evidence from a participatory deliberation practice in a municipality in Japan [Article]. Sustainability Science, 14(6), 1605-1619. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00684-x
Kamijo, Y., Komiya, A., Mifune, N., & Saijo, T. (2017). Negotiating with the future: Incorporating imaginary future generations into negotiations [Article]. Sustainability Science, 12(3), 409-420. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0419-8
Kuo, Y.-L., CHIE, B.-T., SHAW, D., & YANG, T.-C. (2020). Does the Process of Imaginary Future Generations Increase Intergenerational Public Goods Investments? – The Case of Climate Change Mitigation Games. In. Annual Conference of Taiwan Environmental and Resource Economics Association, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Kuo, Y.-L., Wu, W.-C., Shaw, D., Chie, B.-T., & Liu, Y.-L. (2022). The Impact of Imaginary Future Generations on the Preference for Cabon Tax Schemes.
Kuroda, M., Uwasu, M., Bui, X.-T., Nguyen, P.-D., & Hara, K. (2021). Shifting the perception of water environment problems by introducing “imaginary future generations”—Evidence from participatory workshop in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Futures, 126:102671. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102671
Nishimura, N., Inoue, N., Masuhara, H., & Musha, T. (2020). Impact of Future Design on Workshop Participants’ Time Preferences. Sustainability, 12(18), 7796. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/su12187796
Saijo, T. (2020). Future Design (T. Saijo, Ed.). Springer Singapore.
Shahrier, S., Kotani, K., & Saijo, T. (2017). Intergenerational sustainability dilemma and the degree of capitalism in societies: a field experiment [Article]. Sustainability Science, 12(6), 957-967. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-017-0447-z
Shaw, D., Fu, Y.-H., Lin, S.-M., & Huang, W.-H. (2020). Carbon Mitigation Policy in Taiwan: Subsidies or Taxes? (in Chinese). Green Economy, 6:A1-23. https://doi.org/10.6858/GE.202007/SP_6.0001
Shaw, D., Kuo, Y.-L., Chie, B.-T., Chang, C.-T., Hung, M.-F., Chen, H.-H., & Yuan, T.-Y. (2021). Does the future imagination treatment affect people’s pro-environmental intention and donation decisions? In. Future Design Workshop, Webinar, Japan.
Wang, P.-K., Shaw, D., Fu, Y.-H., Yang, C.-W., Chen, P., Wang, L.-W., Jhuang, H.-T., Lin, S.-M., & Huang, W.-H. (2023). Roads to Net-Zero: A Win-win Strategy for Taiwan (in Chinese). Research Center for Environmental Changes, ACADEMIA SINICA.