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研究生：	陳柔安 Chen, Jou-An
論文名稱：	人口高齡化對國際資本影響之研究 Population aging and international capital movement: an overlapping-generation model approach
指導教授：	許永河 Hsu, Yuan-Ho
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	社會科學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics
論文出版年：	2013
畢業學年度：	101
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	59
中文關鍵詞：	高齡化、疊代模型、資本流動、年金制度
外文關鍵詞：	aging, overlapping-generation model, capital movement, pay-as-you-go
相關次數：	點閱：134 下載：9
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本文建構一疊代模型 (overlapping-generation model)，分別於封閉及開放經濟體系中分析台灣與日本兩國於人口高齡化下對總體經濟情況與資本流動之影響。於封閉經濟體系之研究結果顯示，在現行採用之隨收隨付制 (pay-as-you-go) 社會福利制度下，高齡化不僅對家計單位之儲蓄行為有負向影響，也同時加重了政府的財政負擔；隨之高齡化問題日益嚴重，年金制度與稅率制度的改革能有效改善政府財政赤字，並影響民眾之儲蓄行為。於資本可自由移動之開放經濟體系中，研究結果顯示高齡化問題導致兩國之家計單位儲蓄率下降，而資本由高齡化問題較為嚴重之國家流向輕度高齡化之國家，意味著資本將由日本流向台灣。藉此，本文證實政策制度的改革不僅能直接影響家計單位之經濟行為，也隨資本的自由移動間接影響台日兩國之經常帳與國際收支平衡。本文藉由該模型說明人口高齡化對總體經濟及國際資本流動之影響。

This paper analyzes the long-term dynamic effect of demographic change on international capital movement between Taiwan and Japan, by constructing a two-country multi-period overlapping generation model. In a closed economy setting, the simulation results illustrate that population aging has an adverse effect on saving motive and induces heavier fiscal burdens to the government under pay-as-you-go pension system. Considering the demographic change and existing welfare system, pension reform and tax reform play important roles on improving the government deficits and individuals’ saving behavior due to population aging. In an open economy setting, the simulation results indicate that aging leads to a reduction in savings in both countries. Besides, capital moves from aged economy to aging economy, namely, from Japan to Taiwan. However, fiscal policy does not only have direct effect on individual economic behavior, but also affects current account and trade balance indirectly. Finally, this study shows the impact of population aging on macroeconomics and its effect on international capital flow.

Contents
Chapter 1. Introduction	1
Chapter 2. Literature Review	6
2.1 Population aging and international capital movement	7
2.2 Population aging, capital flows and social security system	9
2.3 The related research within Asian economies	10
Chapter 3. The model and parameterization	11
3.1 The model	11
3.1.1 Household sector	11
3.1.2 Firm sector	15
3.1.3 Pension System	15
3.1.4 Government sector	16
3.1.5 Foreign sector	18
3.1.6 The equilibrium condition	19
3.2 Parameterization of the model	19
3.2.1 Endogenous variables under five sectors	20
3.2.2 Exogenous variables	24
Chapter 4. Simulation results: A closed economy scenario	25
4.1 Baseline simulation in Taiwan and Japan	25
4.2 Policy analysis in Taiwan	29
4.2.1 Pension reform	29
4.2.2 The change of individual preference	31
4.2.3 Tax reform	35
4.3 Policy analysis in Japan	38
4.3.1 Pension reform	38
4.3.2 Tax reform	42
Chapter 5. Simulation results: An open economy scenario	45
5.1 Baseline simulation	45
5.2 Policy analysis	48
Chapter 6. Conclusion	52
References	55
Data source	59


List of Tables
Table 3-1. Parameters from Taiwan and Japan in this model	20
Table 4-1. The change of parameter values in different cases in Taiwan	29
Table 4-2. The change of parameter values in different cases in Japan	38
Table 5-1. The change of parameter values in different cases under open economy	48


List of Figures
Figure 1-1. Old dependency ratio in East Asia	2
Figure 1-2. The ratio of foreign trade with Taiwan in Asia	2
Figure 1-3. Economic circular flow diagram	3
Figure 1-4. Population in Taiwan, 1950 to 2060	4
Figure 1-5. The framework of this study	5
Figure 2-1. A schematic diagram of overlapping-generation model	6
Figure 3-1. Bond issuance rate in Taiwan	22
Figure 3-2. Wage profile in Taiwan and Japan	23
Figure 4-1. Baseline results in Taiwan (A closed economy scenario)	27
Figure 4-2. Baseline results in Japan (A closed economy scenario)	28
Figure 4-3. Pension system structure in Taiwan- change in replacement ratio	32
Figure 4-4. Pension system structure in Taiwan-change in pension contribution rate	33
Figure 4-5. A change of individual’s preference in Taiwan	34
Figure 4-6. Tax reform in Taiwan- change in income tax rate	36
Figure 4-7. Tax reform in Taiwan- change in capital tax rate	37
Figure 4-8. Pension system structure in Japan- change in replacement ratio	40
Figure 4-9. Pension system structure in Japan- change in pension contribution rate	41
Figure 4-10. Tax reform in Japan- change in income tax rate	43
Figure 4-11. Tax reform in Japan- change in capital tax rate	44
Figure 5-1. Baseline results in Taiwan and Japan (An open economy scenario)	47
Figure 5-2. Tax reform- increase income tax rate in Taiwan	50
Figure 5-3. Tax reform- decrease income tax rate in Japan	51
                                    

1. References

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2. Data source

AREMOS database of economics and statistics from Taiwan Economic Data Center. http://net.aremos.org.tw/

Historical population statistic from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. http://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4

Population Projections for R.O.C. (Taiwan): 2012~2060 from Council for economic planning and development. http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0000455

Statistic digest of labor trends (2011) from Council of Labor Affairs, R.O.C. http://statdb.cla.gov.tw/html/trend/101/fscommand/cla-1.pdf

Statistical yearbook of Interior (2012) from Department of Statistics, Ministry of the Interior. http://sowf.moi.gov.tw/stat/year/elist.htm

The Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan (Statistics Japan) http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/index.htm

The World Bank data (2012). http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW/countries/

World health statistics report (2013) from World health organization.
http://www.who.int/gho/publications/world_health_statistics/EN_WHS2013_Full.pdf

Yearbook of financial statistics (2011) from Ministry of Finance, R.O.C. http://www.mof.gov.tw/public/Data/statistic/Year_Fin/100%E9%9B%BB%E5%AD%90%E6%9B%B8/htm/yearmenu.htm

校內：2016-08-26公開
校外：2016-08-26公開

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