時任美國總統川普對中國開啟貿易戰後，美中關係持續惡化；克里米亞危機及俄烏戰爭後，美俄關係亦持續下探；對比之下，中俄關係則愈發友好，美中俄三方戰略互動是否與冷戰時期有所不同，值得國關研究者加以釐清。本論文研究指出，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係於新冷戰時期被逐步建立，中俄聯手抗美態勢愈加鞏固。根據戰略三角學理，美國在三方戰略互動中地位雖然近似「孤雛」，但此三角模式處於一種高度均衡，不易發生重大變化。然而，2024年年底美國總統大選之結果（即美國國內政治）或在一定程度上影響美中俄戰略三角關係的均衡程度；換言之，若傾向孤立主義政策的候選人成為美國總統，烏克蘭將失去諸多來自美國的奧援，美俄關係將因此改善。屆時，若美中結構性衝突之爭霸對峙態勢不變，俄羅斯於三角互動中將成為關鍵樞紐，美中爭相拉攏之下，美中俄三邊關係或可能轉向為羅曼蒂克之三角關係。

After then-U.S. President Trump launched a trade war with China, U.S.-China relations continued to deteriorate; after the Crimean crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S.-Russian relations also continued to decline; in contrast, Sino-Russian relations became increasingly closer. Whether the strategic interactions between the United States, China and Russia are different from those during the Cold War is worthy of clarification by international relations researchers. The research of this paper points out that the Sino-Russian strategic partnership has been gradually established during the New Cold War, and the scenarios of Sino-Russian joint resistance to the United States became increasingly consolidated. According to the theory of strategic triangle, although the status of the United States in the trilateral strategic interaction is similar to that of "outcast", this triangular model is highly balanced and is not prone to major changes. However, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election at the end of 2024 (i.e., U.S. domestic politics) may affect the balance of the U.S.-China-Russia strategic triangle to a certain extent; in other words, if a candidate who favors isolationist policies becomes the U.S. president, Ukraine will lose aids from the United States, consequently, the U.S.-Russian relations will be improved. By then, given the structural conflict between the United States and China remains, Russia will take a pivotal role in the triangular interaction. As the United States and China compete to win over each other, the trilateral relationship between the United States, China and Russia may turn into a romantic triangular relationship.

壹、中文文獻
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