由於全球氣候變遷的影響，造成許多地區的降雨型態發生改變，從而影響當地的經濟與社會活動。台灣同樣面臨嚴峻的氣候變遷帶來的水資源匱乏問題，降雨集中且強度變化大，使得集水能力十分有限以及災害頻傳，因此需要良好的水資源規劃因應之。本研究選擇台灣南部的屏東平原作為研究區域，嘗試規劃出一套有效的地下水枯旱度標準，分析研究區域內長期且連續的地下水位觀測資料並探討其相對枯旱的期間與強度，目的是了解本區地下水枯旱狀態的時空分布特性與相關性，可供未來地下水資源整體規劃之參考。
首先，本研究使用Mann-Kendall檢定法評估研究期間內各測站地下水位的變化趨勢，以了解研究區域內長期水位波動的情形。其次，應用標準化地下水位指數法（SGI），將選定之測站的連續180與360日地下水位累積值轉換成標準化的SGI指標：SGI180與SGI360。接著使用各測站的SGI180與SGI360之指標歷線，觀測半年尺度與一年尺度下之地下水水位相對枯旱強度變化的情形。本研究利用SGI指標的出現機率訂定枯旱的嚴重程度，根據研究期間內SGI指標的資料累積分布函數，篩選出50%、30%與10%出現機率對應的SGI指標值分別作為界定枯旱強度的門檻值。最後，本研究發展出一套地下水枯旱度預測模式，使用各測站歷年地下水自然消退期間的水位資料擬合消退水位預測式，將現有水位帶入預測式計算產生水位消退線後，可計算SGI指標以評估未來地下水位狀態的枯旱嚴重程度。
本研究使用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法評估屏東平原地下水觀測站的水位變動趨勢結果顯示:屏東平原各流域上游多數測站的水位變化特性呈現下降趨勢，而下游測站水位變化則呈現上升趨勢或無顯著趨勢，接著應用SGI180與SGI360評估地下水枯旱狀態，相對枯旱期間的時空分布調查結果顯示：SGI180在測站每年入冬後都可以偵測到輕微的枯旱訊號，而SGI360則善於偵測橫跨一個豐枯水期的枯旱訊號；SGI180與SGI360在屏東平原各流域於連續枯水年時，上游與下游偵測到相反的枯旱狀態，相對枯旱變動情形與Mann-Kendall檢定法評估的地下水水位變化趨勢大致符合。
研究成果表明，在屏東平原的第一含水層之地下水枯旱狀態受到區域內的降雨時間分布與水文地質型態的影響。另外，本研究依照屏東平原各流域上游與下游枯旱分佈的不同各篩選出該流域之代表測站，建立地下水枯旱度預測模式，投入歷年水位消退期間檢驗枯旱度預測效果。在關福、老埤與餉潭站預測的枯旱度變化與實際狀態相近，但高樹站與溪埔站分別受到降雨和河川流量的影響，特定水位範圍內的消退變化不同，需要探討分組模式下的消退變化特徵以修正預測的誤差。

Taiwan has been confronted with severe water shortage crises in recent years owing to the effects of extreme weather conditions. Changes in precipitation patterns have also led the insufficient groundwater recharge, and frequency increase of drought. Hence, further studies the historical groundwater data can be used to understand the distribution characteristics and correlation of the groundwater drought state in the study area, which can be used as a reference for future groundwater resources planning. In the present study, select Pingtung Plain as study area. Daily groundwater level monitoring records during 2000 and 2017 from 53 groundwater level stations on this area are investigated in order to assess the overall groundwater level response to natural drought phenomena. Firstly, the long-term groundwater level records at each station are analyzed using the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) method to detect groundwater drought events at half-year and one-year timescales. The two SGI indicators, SGI180 and SGI360, are time-series data consisting of the cumulative total of daily groundwater levels, with a cumulative period of 180 days and 360 days, respectively. The criteria for groundwater drought intensity ranks associated with the cumulative distribution function estimated by SGI is also presented. Secondly, according to the trend of groundwater level records assessed by the Mann-Kendall test, 53 sites were divided into three categories and planning appropriate groundwater management strategies. Finally, develop groundwater level recession models of prediction that can assess the future drought state of groundwater based on current groundwater level conditions. In conclusion, understanding the interaction between drought and groundwater resources is very helpful for the development and management of water resources, and the results can be used as reference for the government’s overall planning of future groundwater resources.

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