中華郵政支局在台灣都會區內密集遍布，部分支局使用率、業務量過低，因此中華郵政自2016年已開始進行整併支局行動，計畫整併以六都為主的支局。另一方面，近年來電子商務的迅速成長衍生了大量的包裹需求，各大便利商店也陸續推出寄件服務，物流服務搭載便利商店高密度的門市，對中華郵政造成巨大的威脅，因此本研究即探討中華郵政在面對競爭對手下，整併支局策略的區位選擇。本研究使用Fotheringham(1983)所提出的目的地競爭模型(Competing Destination Models)，並使用GIS軟體搭配台北市實際路網圖層，蒐集模型中所需的距離資料，進一步納入競爭與凝聚效果考量，觀察中華郵政及其競爭對手的營收變化情形，並根據歷史營收驗證模型的解釋能力。最後使用空間統計分析各業者據點的營收及競爭範圍內據點數量的分布情況，預測中華郵政整併支局之合適區位，以提供中華郵政進行整併計畫之參考依據。研究結果顯示，中華郵政在離市中心較遠、人口密度較低的區域(如內湖區)，雖然消費客群較少，但因競爭程度較低，得以產生高營收群聚的現象，反觀中華郵政在人口密度較高、商業活動頻繁的市中心區域(尤其中正區)，已達到營收飽和，過度競爭導致許多低營收群聚的現象發生，因此本研究建議中華郵政可將中正區列為整併支局計畫之優先考量。

Chunghwa Post started to consolidate several post offices in May 2016, and this research aims to explore the location selection for branch consolidation of Chunghwa Post in Taipei City. In this research, we mainly discuss the parcel services of Chunghwa Post and its competitors. The objective of this study is to find out the appropriate location prediction for the enterprise. We use Competing Destinations Model in this research to calculate the probability and expenditure of each site of companies. We also use historical revenue data of Chunghwa Post to verify the model that we constructed. Moreover, we also use spatial statistical analysis to observe the revenue distribution of all sites of the companies. The result shows that the revenue of the post offices in densely populated city center has almost reached saturation. Therefore, with the consolidation strategy of Chunghwa Post, we suggest that Chunghwa Post consider city center as the prior area for consolidation in Taipei City.

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