本研究利用向量自我迴歸模型（vector autoregression, VAR）、向量誤差修正模型（vector error correction model, VECM）、因果關係檢定及衝擊反應函數與預測殘差變異數分解來探討台灣、南韓、日本及中國這四個東亞國家在1980年至2007年期間，經濟成長與其 排放量及產業部門的能源消費間之因果關係，以提供未來在面臨國內經濟發展與國際間 減量對策之參考。實證發現，台灣、日本及南韓的經濟成長與各變數間具有長期均衡關係；台灣經濟成長與該國產業部門的能源消費及 排放量間短期間無顯著之因果關係；而日本僅存在經濟成長影響住宅與商業部門的能源消費之單向因果關係；至於南韓，其當期的經濟成長與 排放量之間是呈現 排放量影響經濟成長之單向因果關係，而與住宅與商業部門的能源消費則是呈現雙向因果關係。另外VAR模型檢定結果顯示，中國之農業部門的能源消費會影響該國之經濟成長，但其解釋力小於1。因此，經由本實證發現，台灣、日本及中國在短期所採取之節約能源政策或是其他能源相關策略對其經濟成長不會造成立即影響。

This study examines the relationships among economic growth, energy consumption by different industrial sectors and carbon dioxide emissions for four East Asian countries, namely Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and China, during 1980–2007, using a vector autoregression model, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition. The results show there is a long-run causal relationship between economic growth and other variables in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. However, in Taiwan, there is no short-run causal relationship among economic growth, the energy consumption of different industrial sectors, and carbon dioxide emissions; while in Japan, there is only unidirectional causality from economic growth to the residential and commercial sectors’ energy consumption. In addition, in South Korea there also exists unidirectional causality from carbon dioxide emissions to economic growth and bidirectional causality from the residential and commercial sectors' energy consumption to economic growth. Moreover, a vector autoregression model indicates that the explanatory power of the Granger causality between the agricultural sector's energy consumption and economic growth is less than 1. Consequently, this paper considers that in Taiwan, Japan, and China, an energy conservation policy might not immediately affect economic growth.

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