軌道運輸提供舒適、可靠及安全的運輸服務。雖鐵路系統之安全也不斷的被提升，然一旦鐵路事故發生便產生極大之傷亡。在鐵路事故中，列車出軌的頻率雖非首位，但卻可能造成嚴重的人員傷亡、財產損失及營運延誤。了解造成列車出軌的因素，以及各個因素間如何相互影響，並找出引發一系列疏失的根本因果關係，才能採取有效改善策略。
本研究將運用過去十年間臺鐵之鐵路出軌事故資料，以及整合國家運輸安全調查委員會 (TTSB), Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB), Det Norske Veritas (DNV) 之列車出軌相關調查報告，利用領結分析 (Bowtie Analysis) 為架構，整合失效樹分析 (Fault Tree Analysis) 以及事件樹分析 (Event Tree Analysis)，並運用模糊集合推估基本事件發生機率，探討在不同因子組合下造成列車出軌事故的發生機率及嚴重度，以評估其風險等級。
本研究之成果可做為未來臺鐵進行出軌事故防範之重要分析工具，並利用所獲致之實證結果進行出軌事故的安全改善策略，亦可事故後續緊急應變及旅客處理程序研擬之參考。而本研究所構建的出軌事故風險分析模型也可推廣讓不同軌道運輸系統未來進行風險分析應用之參考。

Rail transportation provides comfortable, reliable and safe transportation services. Although the safety of the railway system has been continuously improved, once a railway accident occurs, it will cause great casualties. In railway accidents, although the frequency of derailment is not the first, it may cause serious casualties, property damage and operation delay. Only by understanding the factors that cause derailments and how each factor affects each other, and finding out the root cause and effect of a series of failures, can effective improvement strategies be adopted.
This study will use the derailment accident data of Taiwan Railways Administration in the past ten years, and integrate the train derailment related investigation reports of TTSB, RSSB, and DNV, use Bowtie Analysis as the framework, integrate Fault Tree Analysis and Event Tree Analysis, and using Fuzzy Sets Theory to estimate the occurrence probability of basic events, discuss the occurrence probability and severity of derailment accidents under different factor combinations, so as to evaluate its risk level.
The results of this study can be used as an important analysis tool for TRA to prevent derailment accidents in the future, and use the obtained empirical results to implement safety improvement strategies for derailment accidents. It can also be used as a reference for the development of subsequent emergency response and passenger handling procedures. The derailment accident risk analysis model constructed in this research can also be used as a reference for future risk analysis and application of different rail transportation systems.

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