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研究生: 馬翠眉
Mah, Chooi-Mei
論文名稱: 以賽局理論模擬山坡地開發之決策過程
A Game Theory Approach to Simulate Hillside Development Decision Making Processes
指導教授: 潘南飛
Pan, Nang-Fei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 144
外文關鍵詞: Sustainable hillside development, decision making, game theory, social-political cost, reputation cost
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  • Unmanaged hillside development causing environmental, social and economic problems which often link to mismanagement and low maintenance which triggered landslide. Increased environmental awareness focused attention on the move towards a sustainable pattern of development. Stakeholders with different attitudes, expectation, development goals and utility made the collective decision-making more complicated. Interdependency between stakeholders’ decision further escalate the complexity. Conflicts reduce the wellbeing of the stakeholders in term of benefits, which implies a reduction of the economic growth. Due to the nature of hillside development, conflicts may produce an unsustainable use of land and where the economic and social consequences are generally difficult to foresee. Scientific criteria for managing hillside development do not focused on decision making processes and attempts in this regard are seriously compromised amongst other things by the lack of effective and reliable tools for decision making. To understand the interaction of decision making processes, it is important to analyze how the decisions of the stakeholders are interrelated and how those decisions derives to the outcome. Hence, this study employ game theoretical model as an analytical tool with the main objective of this research is to investigate the usefulness of game theoretical modeling in analyzing and predicting the behaviors of actors in decision-making processes with respect to the hillside development. Game theoretical model provides a better understanding with logic analysis on the issue highlighted. Model constructed around the strategic choices available to players, where the preferred outcomes are clearly defined and known. With this, the equilibriums which satisfy the stakeholders can be achieved in every possible combination of strategies. Game modeling focused on the incomplete information games in which the players’ belief in the landslide likelihood is important belief for their choice. Statistical and economic regression used to elucidate the payoff functions, cost benefits analysis to evaluate the total payoff and to compare the game outcomes on how to reach a cooperative game with government intervention. The validity of game model will be evaluated by comparing the predictions with surveys. Key findings suggested that cooperation game would make both players collectively better off. However, given the uncertainties of the nature aspect of landslide likelihood and both players are profit-driven minded, they are deemed to be unwilling to play cooperating game in the beginning. Clear cooperative signals will be helpful in maximizing payoffs, where the outcome of conflict must be the product of their joint requirements and the interaction of their separate choices. Results demonstrated that game theory help decision-makers to identify the key strategic decision associated with uncertainties. Series of implementation from government included enforcement and encouragement to maximize payoffs. The limitations of this study, in particular, the assumptions underlying the model development. However, to conclude, game theory possessed as a useful decision support tool in simulating different scenarios and provides a clearer view on trade-off and payoff of the strategic interaction complexity.

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I ABSTRACT II TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLE VIII LIST OF FIGURE X LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS, ACRONYMS, AND SYMBOLS XII CHAPTER ONE. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Research Background 1 1.2. Problem Statement 2 1.3. Research Questions 4 1.4. Research Objectives 5 1.5. Theoretical Background 5 1.6. Research Outline 7 1.7. Thesis Outline 8 CHAPTER TWO. LITERATURE REVIEW 9 2.1. How game theory works 9 2.1.1. Prisoner’s Dilemma Games 17 2.1.2. Solution Concepts 21 2.2. Application of game theoretical model in construction engineering and management study 22 2.3. Summary 27 CHAPTER THREE. HILL SIDE DEVELOPMENT 28 3.1. Introduction 28 3.2. Hillside development 28 3.2.1. Failure of hillside development 29 3.2.2. History of Major Landslide in Malaysia 30 3.2.3. Cost of hillside development 35 3.2.4. Types of landslide cost 35 3.2.5. Direct and Indirect Costs 36 3.2.6. Public and Private Costs 36 3.2.7. Landslide as an Externality 37 3.2.8. Private, Social and External Costs 37 3.2.9. Distinction between Public and Social Costs 40 3.2.10. Responsibility of the External Costs 40 3.3. Government Intervention 40 3.4. Social and political cost 41 3.5. Reputation cost 41 3.5.1. Cost-benefit analysis on hillside development 43 3.5.2. Willingness to Pay 44 3.6. Valuation of Benefits 45 3.7. Landslides Associated with Urban Development 47 3.8. Sustainable hillside development 49 3.8.1. Sustainability in planning and design stages 52 3.8.2. Sustainable hillside land planning practices 53 3.8.3. Planning Permission 55 3.8.3.1. Slope Classification 56 3.8.3.2. Environmental Impact Assessment 57 3.8.4. Hillside development practice 58 3.9. Summary 61 CHAPTER FOUR. METHODOLOGY 62 4.1. Study processes 62 4.2. Questionnaires Survey 65 4.3. Complete Information Games 65 4.4. Incomplete Information Games 67 4.5. Simulation 67 4.6. Comparison 67 4.7. Payoff Function 68 4.7.1. Social-political cost function 68 4.7.2. Reputation cost function 75 4.7.3. Economic payoff function 78 4.8. Calculation of Overall payoff 81 4.8.1. Weight 81 4.9. Solution Concept –Nonlinear programming 81 4.10. Government Intervention to shift the Nash point to Pareto point 83 4.11. Summary 83 CHAPTER FIVE. CASE STUDY 85 5.1. Problem statement on the case study 85 5.2. Players 88 5.3. The designation of players strategies 89 5.4. Payoffs 91 5.5. Stage 1- Survey Result 91 5.5.1. Sample size 92 5.5.2. Analysis and results 92 5.6. Game Assumptions and game constraints 95 5.7. Stage 2: Simulate of complete information game 96 5.8. Stage 3: Simulate of Incomplete information 101 5.8.1. Assignment of Economic Payoff 101 5.8.2. Assignment of social-political cost and reputation cost 103 5.9. Stage 4 - Simulation with government intervention 118 5.10. Stage 5 – Comparison of results 120 5.11. Summary 122 CHAPTER SIX. DISCUSSION, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATION 123 6.1. Discussions 123 6.1.1. Current Malaysia government Intervention 124 6.2. Study contribution 128 6.3. Conclusion 129 6.4. Suggestion for future research 132 REFERENCES 133 APPENDIX 137

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