歷年來國內所從事的各項重大交通建設計畫，反映了台灣在運輸需求上的增加。重大交通建設包括中山高、二高、北宜高、高鐵與捷運等，在規劃時皆進行了運輸需求預測，為評估決策時的最主要依據。過去各計畫中的需求預測，事實上高估或低估的情形相當嚴重，不論高估或低估，均嚴重造成社會的負擔。
鑑於過去運量預測高低估的案例甚多，故本研究藉由回顧運輸需求預測模式與方法以及國內相關應用之案例，做為分析之基礎，並蒐集自民國六十年以來，國內重大交通建設之規劃報告書，將預測值與實際值交叉比對，以進行事後之評估。最後綜合所有評估結果，檢視各交通建設的需求預測之準確度，據以探討過去所使用預測方法及作業模式之問題所在，依改善方向提出建議，以供參考。
本研究之主要建議包括兩方面，在資料面上，建議推動標準交通分區及統一貨物分類，並建立社經資料、O-D資料、交通量及運量統計資料庫，以及建立運輸需求模式庫。另外在制度面上，建議落實運輸需求預測標準作業程序及運輸規劃顧問公司評鑑制度，同時推動運輸規劃作業的交通技師簽證制度，以及制定運輸計畫審議時在運輸需求預測方面應有的預測資料及格式，並建立運輸需求預測的事後評估制度。

Over the years construction of the domestic major transportation infrastructures has reflected the increase of transportation demand in taiwan. The major transportation infrastructures include the Zhongshan freeway, the Second freeway, the BeiYi expressway, the High-speed railroad and Mass Rapid Transit and so on, when they were carried on, the transportation demand forecasts were made for main decision-making base. However, most of them are overestimated or underestimated seriously, which have caused social burden.
Therefore, firstly this research reviews approaches and cases related to transportation demand forecast models implemented in Taiwan. Secondly, this research collects all the planning report of the domestic major transportation infrastructures then checks forecast data with actual data as post-appraisal. Finally, the critical elements of producing an accurate transportation demand forecast are discussed.
Two main suggestions are as follows. From the standpoint of data, this study suggests promoting standard traffic zoning, unifying freight classification, establishing the data bank of socioeconomic data, O-D data, traffic volume and passenger traffic, as well as establishing the data bank of transportation demand models. From the standpoint of system, this study suggests realizing the standard operational procedure of transportation demand forecast and the evaluation system in consultant firms, promoting the transportation technician licensing system, offering standardized forecast data and forms, and establishing post-appraisal system of transportation demand forecast.

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