臺灣中部濁水溪沖積扇地下水長期過度開發，為了能永續的利用水資源，瞭解影響地下水位變化的主要因子極為重要。本研究以濁水溪沖積扇為研究區域，進行地下水位時間序列分析，瞭解研究區域地下水位是否存在顯著性變化，並透過空間自相關分析Moran’s I指數瞭解地下水位在空間上的特徵，建立地理加權回歸模型探討1999~2019年乾季及濕季地下水位變化的主要影響因子。另外，透過雨水利用效率(Rain Use Efficiency, RUE)來瞭解研究區域降雨提供植被生長所需水量的問題，最後探討標準化植被指數(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI)與地下水位埋藏深度(Depth to Groundwater Table, DWT)的相互關係。研究結果顯示，根據Mann-Kendll檢定進行地下水位時間序列分析，濁水溪沖積扇地下水位正面臨顯著性的下降問題，空間自相關分析Moran’s I指數顯示地下水位在乾季及濕季皆有空間正相關性，且有相同的空間分布。地理加權回歸模型分析結果顯示，研究區域乾季地下水位變化以排水密度、坡度、NDVI及降雨等四項因子為主要影響因子，濕季地下水位變化以排水密度、坡度、NDVI及濕潤指數等四項因子為主要影響因子。RUE分析結果顯示濁水溪沖積扇2000年至2019年濕季RUE >1.0的比例大於乾季，且皆集中在研究區域中南部扇頂一帶。以NDVI與DWT相關性分析結果顯示，以研究區域每年5月為最低之平均地下水位，與NDVI在10公尺以內之地下水埋藏深度有最佳相關性，而以每年8月最高之平均地下水位，與NDVI在20公尺以內之地下水埋藏深度有最佳相關性。本研究分析探討濁水溪沖積扇地下水位的變化因素，可以做為日後水資源運用與管理的參考依據。

The groundwater of the Choushui River alluvial fan in Central Taiwan has been overexploited for a long time. It is essential to understand the factors governing changes in groundwater level (GWL) for the use of water resources. In this study, we first conducted a Mann–Kendall test to identify significant trends in the regional GWL and obtained its spatial characteristics using the Moran’s I index in the Choushui River alluvial fan. Furthermore, we established a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to explore the spatial correlation between natural factors and GWL in dry and wet seasons from 1999 to 2019. The long-term trend analysis shows that the GWL of the Choushui River alluvial fan decline significantly. The Moran’s I index shows that the spatial distribution of GWL had a positive correlation in both dry and wet seasons. GWR model indicate that the GWL are affected by drainage density (Dd), slope (S), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and precipitation (P) during the dry season, while Dd, S, NDVI, and wetness index (WI) have an effect on the GWL during the wet season. These results can not only describe the model applicability for exploring the relationship between natural factors and GWL but also be used as references for future regional water resource utilization and management.

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經濟部水利署，(2017)，106年度彰化及雲林地區地層下陷監測及分析，臺北市：經濟部水利署