Indonesia is a large agricultural country. There are several agricultural products that are consumed by Indonesian, one of them is chili. As one of the key ingredients to the Indonesian daily meal and one of the 10 primary commodities, Indonesian government monitors chili price movement with considerable attention. Every month, BPS-Statistics Indonesia published Price Movement Report and in 2010, chili price’s movement contributed significant portion of inflation.
The chili price’s movement is very volatile, more over in the last five years. Averagely, the chili price can even be doubled in between harvest season. Certainly, this volatility may bring arbitrage opportunities to the Indonesian entrepreneurs. This study examines one of the potential opportunities – storage chili for one month – to determine if and under what conditions this is a viable business opportunity.
The result of this study has successfully forecast the chili price movement and makes trading simulation using cold storing. The results of this research are the model of chili price movement and the trading simulation rules for storing chili. The result for trading simulation is by storing chili, there is opportunity to take 22 until 35% profit annually, depended upon which marketing channel that will be used.

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