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研究生: 詹仲捷
Chan, Chung-Chieh
論文名稱: 防禦型投資股票支援分析-以台灣上市公司為例
指導教授: 耿伯文
Kreng, Victor
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 資訊管理研究所
Institute of Information Management
論文出版年: 2003
畢業學年度: 91
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 74
中文關鍵詞: 防禦型財務比率相關係數倒傳遞網路
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  • 從民國五十年台灣股市成立以來,企業所發行的股票價格時常受到非本身營運因素(如兩岸之間的危機談話、國際戰爭、或者股票投機客..等等)所干擾,導致股票價格有如暴漲暴跌一樣的漲跌,當這些因素所干擾完後,最終還是回歸於公司基本面分析,若找出財務面健全的公司,可以買進並持久,而不隨著非本身營運因素所影響,相信與在自己股票投資獲利上,會有較好的成績。
    本研究主要是以財務指標來針對目前台灣的上市公司來做檢測,先找出防禦型條件的企業,然後找出較會影響對這些優良公司營運的財務指標,最後研究以這些財務指標去預測公司近期的股票價格,而此為本研究的最終目的。
    挑選出防禦型條件的公司,是利用Graham與Buffett學者所提出的方法來挑選出這些公司,再來是使用統計之相關係數方法找出較為影響公司的財務指標,故希望由相關係數的方法來找出前二十個與股價最有相關的財務指標,最後是以倒傳遞類神經方法用找出這些財務指標來預測公司的股票價格,在倒傳遞類神經方法具有不錯的預測的功能,可以使用其財務指標來預測出公司近期的股票價格,來提供這些資訊來支援投資人投資股票的決策,以獲得更好的獲利。

    目錄................................1 圖目錄...............................2 表目錄...............................3 第一章 緒論............................5 第一節 研究動機........................6 第二節 研究目的........................6 第三節 研究流程........................7 第四節 研究限制........................9 第二章 文獻探討..........................10 第一節 市場預測方法........................10 2.1.1 市場效率假說...................10 2.1.2 技術面分析....................11 2.1.3 基本分析.....................14 第二節 搜尋防禦型企業方法.....................18 第三節 選擇財務比率指標方法..................21 第四節 股票預測方法......................23 2.4.1分類與迴歸樹....................23 2.4.2模糊理論......................25 2.4.3類神經網路法....................27 第三章 研究設計與研究方法......................34 第一節 研究架構.........................34 第二節 搜尋防禦型企業方法....................35 第三節 選擇財務比率指標設計...................38 第四節 股票價格預測方式設計...................39 第四章 實證結果與討論........................42 第一節 實證範例描述.........................42 第二節 搜尋防禦型企業方法....................42 第三節 選擇財務比率指標.......................52 第四節 股票價格預測.........................65 第五節 本章結語...........................68 第五章 結論與建議..........................69 第一節 結論...........................69 第二節 未來實證研究.......................70 參考文獻...............................71

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