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研究生: 林佳穎
Lin, Chia-Ying
論文名稱: 我國財務報表穩健特性及穩健原則攸關價值之研究
An empirical study on the attributes of conservatism in Taiwan’s financial statements and relevant value of conservatism’s information
指導教授: 林松宏
Lin, Song-Hong
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accountancy
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 86
中文關鍵詞: 保守原則保守主義穩健主義穩健原則
外文關鍵詞: Conservatism, Bias component
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  • 穩健原則過去一直被受批評,然而在台灣實證上對於穩健原則少有研究,本研究係對台灣財務報表穩健特性及穩健原則的資訊價值提出實證上的證據,並對穩健原則提出抗辯。

    本為參照多篇文章,利用迴歸方式分解出企業淨值與盈餘中的穩健原則(偏差因素),並對於台灣財務報表穩健特性及穩健原則的資訊價值提出實證上及解釋原因。並且將條件式及非條件式穩健原則的觀念導入,以澄清過去對穩健原則觀念所造成的誤解。

    本文的研究成果共有五項:(1)發現從非條件式穩健原則的角度發現穩健能量呈現遞減,但從條件式穩健原則的角度卻發現穩健能量為呈現遞增(2)財務報表存在穩健原則,但其提供的資訊價值卻不會因穩健原則而失去攸關性(3)淨值市價比對於未來股東權益報酬率相較於當期股東權益報酬率解釋能力之持續性較低。淨值中的偏差因素(穩健原則)對未來股東權益報酬率解釋能力相較於當期股東權益報酬率較具持續性(4)盈餘落後股價反應的原因來自盈餘落後因素及盈餘偏差因素 (5)過去穩健原則能調和股東與債權人在股利政策上之衝突,但近年調和能力有呈遞減趨勢。本文希望這些研究結果可提供準則制訂機關重新思考穩健原則的會計意涵,以瞭解其真正的資訊價值。

    Conservatism has been criticized all the time, but there are few empirical studies about conservatism in Taiwan. My empirical study is about the attributes of conservatism in Taiwan’s financial statements, and the relevant value of conservatism’s information to give a different view on conservatism.

    This study decomposes book value and earnings to bias and lag components, and analyses the changes of bias component in book value and earnings. And this study leads in a new view about unconditional and conditional conservatism.

    There are five outcomes in this study: (1) unconditional conservatism decreases by years and conditional conservatism increases by years (2) the value relevance of accounting has declined only for firms with the least conservative accounting. Further tests indicate that the decline in value relevance cannot be attributed to conservatism (3) bias component (conservatism) is the best factor to predict future ROE when compared with the present ROE (4) there are two reasons of the declining contemporaneous linear relation between annual stock returns and accounting earnings,earnings reflect news with a lag relative to stock prices and earnings reflect good and bad news in an asymmetric fashion (5) conservatism mitigates conflicts of interest over dividend policy between shareholders and bondholders.But the ability of mitigation is decreasing recently.

    第一章 緒論....................................1 第一節 研究動機與目的.........................1 第二節 論文貢獻...............................4 第三節 研究流程與論文架構.....................6 第二章 文獻探討................................9 第一節 穩健原則之基本概念.....................9 第二節 穩健原則之相關文獻....................14 第三節 財務報表攸關性與股價資訊性之相關研....24 第三章 研究設計與方法.........................27 第一節 研究假說..............................29 第二節 研究設計與變數定義....................32 第三節 資料來源與樣本選取....................44 第四章 實證結果與分析........................48 第一節 財務報表非條件式穩健原則時間性變化之實証結果分析........................49 第二節 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性關係之實證結果分析果........................51 第三節 企業之淨值及偏差因素預測未來股東權益能力之實證結果分析..................59 第四節 解構盈餘分析當期盈餘與股價關係及盈餘不對稱認列之實證結果分析............64 第五節 我國財務報表穩健特性之综合分析........69 第六節 穩健原則調和股東與債權人衝突之廻歸分析..............................71 第五章 結論與建議............................79 第一節 研究結果...........................79 第二節 研究限制及建議.....................81 參考文獻.......................................84 表 目 錄 表2-1 穩健原則有關之文獻探討彙總表......................................................23 表3-1 解構帳面值所採用之實證樣本..........................................................45 表3-2 穩健原則與財務報表資訊攸關價值 所採用之樣本-總應計項目分類方式...................................... 46 表3-3 穩健原則與財務報表資訊攸關價值 所採用之樣本-總應計項目分類方式.... ..................................46 表3-4 帳面值中偏差因素預測未來股東權益能力之樣本.. .......................46 表3-5 盈餘落後因素之實證樣本..................................................................47 表3-6 股東與債權人衝突之實證樣本(1995-2004)………………………..47 表3-7 股東與債權人衝突之實證樣本(2000-2004)………….……………..47 表4-1 穩健原則時間性變化之敘述統計量...................................................49 表4-2 財務報表穩健度與時間關係之廻歸結果...........................................50 表4-3 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性分析廻歸樣本之敘述統計量.......51 表4-4 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性分析各群之臨界值.......................51 表4-5 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性分析之相關係數表.......................52 表4-6 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性之迴歸分析實證結果…...............53 表4-7 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性迴歸之R2匯總表.........................54 表4-8 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性之迴歸分析實證結果...................55 表4-9 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性迴歸之R2匯總表.........................56 表4-10 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性之迴歸分析實證結果...................57 表4-11 穩健原則與財務報表價值攸關性迴歸之R2匯總表.........................58 表4-12 淨值市價比及偏差因素預測未來股東權益報酬率之敘述性統計...59 表4-13 淨值市價比預測未來股東權益報酬率之相關係數表.......................59 表4-14 偏差因素預測未來股東權益報酬率之相關係數表...........................60 表4-15 淨值市價比預測未來股東權益報酬率之廻歸分析表……………...61 表4-16 偏差因素預測未來股東權益報酬率之廻歸分析表...........................62 表4-17 淨值市價比預測未來股東權益報酬率敘述性統計...........................64 表4-18 淨值市價比預測未來股東權益報酬率之相關係數表.......................64 表4-19 盈餘不對稱認列之廻歸分析表...........................................................65 表4-20 盈餘落後因素之廻歸分析表...............................................................66 表4-21 盈餘落後因素及偏差因素盈餘落後因素之廻歸分析表...................67 表4-22 非條件式穩健增加盈餘不對稱認列情況之综合歸納表...................69 表4-23 穩健原則調和股東與債權人衝突敘述性統計(1995-1999)…...........71 表4-24 穩健原則調和股東與債權人衝突敘述性統計敘述性統計…..….…71 表4-25穩健原則調和股東與債權人衝突敘之相關係表………….….……..73 表4-26穩健原則調和股東與債權人衝突之相關係表……………….……...74 表4-27穩健原則調和股東及債權人在股利政策衝突....................................75 表4-28穩健原則調和股東及債權人在股利政策衝突....................................77 表5- 1 研究結果彙總表....................................................................................83 圖 目 錄 圖1-1 研究流程圖一...............................................6 圖1-2 研究流程圖二...............................................7 圖3-1 穩健原則衡量概念圖........................................27

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