簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 歐大偉
Ozaist, David
論文名稱: Impact of Regional Integration in Europe on International Trade in Case of Poland and its Major Trading Partners: A Gravity Study
Impact of Regional Integration in Europe on International Trade in Case of Poland and its Major Trading Partners: A Gravity Study
指導教授: 偉耶倫
Webb, Alan J.
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 41
外文關鍵詞: International Trade, Regionalization, European Union, CEFTA, World Integration, Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, Gravity Model
相關次數: 點閱:115下載:1
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • Gravity model of trade was applied to the European Union with main focus on Poland and its major trading partners. The trade data was analyzed and the effect of common market was measured. The final conclusion of this research shows how accession to the European Union reflected on Poland’s trade. A total of 189 observations were collected from the secondary sources mostly from official government publications. Data series range from 1989 until 2009 which gives 21 records. Countries which this research focuses on include 3 countries, which joined European Union prior to 2004: Germany, France, and Italy. Another 3 countries joining the common market together with Poland in 2004: Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia. The last 3 countries are those which remain outside of the European Union: Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Turkey. Countries were selected based on the total trade volume with Poland. Every record for the given country in a given year contains imports to Poland, exports from Poland, GDP, and the population. The results of this research show how the trade patterns among Poland and its major trading partners have changed due to the accession to the European Union. This research contributes to the existing research on the effect of the trade creation with the well-presented and supported case of Poland.

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I ABSTRACT II TABLE OF CONTENTS III LIST OF TABLES VI LIST OF FIGURES VII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background. 1 1.1.1 Historical Background. 2 1.2 Research Objectives. 3 1.2.1 Trade Volume and EU Membership. 4 1.2.2 Trade Volume and Economy Size. 4 1.2.3 Trade Volume and Relative Distance. 4 1.2.4 EU Common Market and Poland’s Trade. 4 1.3 Expected Outcomes. 4 1.4 Research Importance. 5 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1 Regional Integration. 6 2.1.1 Regional Integration in Europe. 7 2.1.2 Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. 8 2.1.3 Central European Free Trade Agreement. 8 2.1.4 Trade among European Union Members. 9 2.2 Gravity Model of Trade. 9 2.2.1 Logarithmic Regression Coefficients. 11 2.2.2 Criticism of the Gravity Model of Trade. 11 2.3 Distances in International Trade. 12 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 14 3.1 Conceptual Model. 14 3.2 Aggregates Creation Criteria. 15 3.3 Gravity Equation. 17 3.4 Research Hypotheses. 18 3.5 Regional Integration Theory. 18 3.6 Data Analysis. 19 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 21 4.1 Final Results. 21 4.2 Regression Results. 22 4.3 Exports Analysis. 24 4.4 Imports Analysis. 25 4.5 Imports and Exports Analysis. 27 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 30 5.1 Research Conclusion. 30 5.2 Further Research. 30 REFERENCES 32 APPENDICES 35 Appendix 1: Former and Current Members of CEFTA. 35 Appendix 2: 27 EU Member Countries with their Year of Accession. 36 Appendix 3: Evolution of the European Community. 37 Appendix 4: Poland’s Imports and Exports. 38 Appendix 5: Poland’s Gross Domestic Product. 38 Appendix 6: Actual and Predicted Imports. 39 Appendix 7: Actual and Predicted Imports and Exports. 39 Appendix 8: Actual and Predicted Imports and Exports in Logarithms. 40 Appendix 9: Crude Oil Future 10 Years Monthly Interval. 41

    Anderson, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.
    Balassa, B. (1975). Introduction: The common market experience. In B. Balessa (Ed.), European Economic Integration (pp. 9-13). Amsterdam.
    Beckerman, W. (1956). Distance and the pattern of intra-european trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 38(1), 31-40.
    Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor-proportions theory in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 143-153.
    Brülhart, M., & Kelly, M. J. (1999). Ireland’s trading potential with central and eastern european countries: A gravity study. The Economic and Social Review, 30(2), 159-174.
    Brun, J.-F., Carrère, C., Guillaumont, P., & de Melo, J. (2005). Has distance died? evidence from a panel gravity model. The World Bank Economic Review, 19(1), 99-120.
    Dangerfield, M. (2001). Integration strategies in post-communist Europe. In Subregional Economic Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe: The Political Economy of CEFTA. Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar.
    Deardorff, A. V. (1998). Determinants of bilateral trade: does gravity work in a neoclassical world? In J. A. Frankel (Ed.), The Regionalization of the World Economy. Chicago: Univeristy of Chicago Press.
    Egger, P. (2002). An econometric view on the estimation of gravity models and the calculation of trade potentials. World Economy, 25(2), 297-312.
    Feenstra, R. C. (1998). Integration of trade and disintegration of production in the global economy. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(4), 31-50.
    Feenstra, R. C., Markusen, J. R., & Rose, A. K. (2001). Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d'Economique, 34(2), 430-447.
    Frankel, J., Stein, E., & Wei, S.-j. (1995). Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural. Journal of Development Economics, 47(1), 61-95.
    Gordon, H. H., & Xiang, C. (2004). The home-market effect and bilateral trade patterns. The American Economic Review, 94(4), 1108-1129.
    Haas, E. B. (1976). Turbulent fields and the theory of regional integration. International Organization, 30(2), 173-212.
    Hamilton, C. B., Winters, L. A., Gordon, H., & Smith, A. (1992). Opening up international trade with Eastern Europe. Economic Policy, 7(14), 78-116.
    Hix, S. (2005). Economic and monetary Union. In The Political System of the European Union. London: Macmillan.
    Isard, W., & Merton, J. P. (1954). Location theory and international and interregional trade theory. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 68(1), 97-114.
    Jacquemin, A., & Sapir, A. (1988a). European integration or world integration? Review of World Economics, 124(1), 127-139.
    Jacquemin, A., & Sapir, A. (1988b). International trade and integration of the European Community. European Economic Review, 32, 1439-1449.
    Lawrence, R. (1991). Emerging regional arrangements: Building blocks or stumbling blocks? Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    Linneman, H. (1966). An econometric study of international trade flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
    Lloyd, P. J. (1992). Regionalisation and world trade. OECD Economic Studies, 18(1), 7-34.
    Matyas, L. (1997). Proper econometric specification of the gravity model. World Economy, 20(3), 363-368.
    Maurel, M., & Cheikbossian, G. (1998). The new geography of Eastern European trade. Kyklos, 51(1), 45-71.
    Moravcsik, A. (1993). Preferences and power in the European Community: A liberal intergovernmentalist approach. Journal of Common Market Studies, 31(4), 473-524.
    Nilsson, L. (2000). Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria. European Journal of Political Economy, 16(4), 807-827.
    Olenski, J. (2010). Concise statistical yearbook of Poland. In H. Dmochowska (Ed.), Foreign Trade (1 ed., Vol. 92). Warsaw: Central Statistical Office.
    Polak, J. J. (1996). Is APEC a natural regional trading bloc? A critique of the `gravity model' of international trade. World Economy, 19(5), 533-543.
    Radermacher, W. (2010a). Historically speaking. In B. Feldmann (Ed.), Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2010. Brussels: European Comission.
    Radermacher, W. (2010b). Statistics on regions. In B. Feldmann (Ed.), Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2010. Brussels: European Comission.
    Richards, J., & Carruth, A. (1986). Short-time working and the unemployment benefit system in Great Britain. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48(1), 41-59.
    Sapir, A. (1992). Regional integration in Europe. The Economic Journal, 102(415), 1491-1506.
    Schmitter, P. C. (1970). A revised theory of regional integration. International Organization, 24(4), 836-868.
    Simon, J. E., & Keller, W. (2002). On theories explaining the success of the gravity equation. The Journal of Political Economy, 110(2), 281-316.
    Tinbergen, J. (1963). Shaping the world economy. International Executive, 5(1), 27-30.
    Viner, J. (1950). The customs union issue. New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
    Wang, Z. K., & Winters, L. A. (1991). The trading potential of Eastern Europe. Paper presented at the CEPR Discussion Paper. from http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:610

    下載圖示 校內:2021-12-31公開
    校外:2021-12-31公開
    QR CODE