本文主要目的在考慮不同降雨延時、臨前水文條件、氣候條件、土壤水力條件狀態下，結合地表入滲逕流及未飽和層土壤排水模式，建立一未飽和層土壤水平衡解析之模式，進行未飽和層剖面因降雨導致之地表入滲、地表逕流、蒸發散及地下水補注之模擬與推估，並探討模式參數之敏感性分析與土壤有效飽和度之變異分析。首先，選定一試驗地點，進行小區域現地土壤剖面水分動態觀測。經由模式結合現地觀測資料進行模式驗證，並進行試驗地點因降雨對地表入滲、地表逕流、土壤蒸發散、地下水補注之比例長期推估。最後經由小區域水平衡解析及模式之驗證，擴展至大區域淺層土壤水平衡各分量之推估。

　　小區域水平衡模式模擬選定本校資源系系館後方作為試驗地點，進行小區域之試驗地點進行土壤試驗及調查，推估試驗地點之飽和水力傳導係數、飽和體積含水量、殘餘體積含水量及土壤特性參數，配合試驗地點之日降雨量資料及相關氣象參數，進行試驗地點地表入滲量、地表逕流量、土壤蒸發散量及地下水補注量之推估。此地點之土壤剖面則依照不同深度進行土壤張力計之埋設，以進行土壤毛細壓力之動態觀測，並結合理論模式與土壤毛細壓力動態觀測結果，進行模式之率定，以校正試驗地點之土壤相關參數。經模式率定過程後，結合校正後之土壤參數，進行試驗地點土壤水平衡各分量模式校正後之推估。而大區域淺層水平衡各分量之模擬與推估，則本文選定雲林地區作為研究區域案例分析，進行大區域未飽和層土壤水平衡分析，進而推求此之地下水補注量。

　　參數敏感性分析結果顯示，土壤飽和水力傳導係數變動時，對模式推估之地表入滲及未飽和層垂向滲透能力之敏感性最高，其餘參數變異對土壤入滲能力及排水特性將產生影響，但敏感性較小。另外，土壤潛勢能蒸發散率之變異，對未飽和層土壤蒸發散量推估敏感性頗高，間接影響水流向下滲透之比例，乃是與土壤飽和水力傳導係數影響土壤向下滲透能力不同之處。

　　關於土壤初始有效飽和度Se0變異分析部分，當土壤初始值Se0變異時，將對模式於模擬初期之推估結果產生差異性。土壤滲透性越差時，影響模式推估差異之初期時間越長。因此建議於模式推估時，將所有初始值變異推估產生之結果取其平均值，以推求試驗地點水平衡模式各分量。另外，以長期未飽和層淨流入量與淨流出量平衡觀念為出發點，顯示進行模式推估時，若將模式土壤初始飽和度定為與模式推估終止時間點上土壤之有效飽和度相等，則亦為一較合適之未飽和層土壤水平衡推估方法。

　　本文小區域試驗地點模擬結果顯示，利用模式配合試驗地點土壤剖面毛細壓力觀測資料進行率定時，若將土壤特性參數l由實驗值0.44向上調整至0.73；土壤飽和進氣潛能ys由－290mm調整至－330mm；時，模式模擬之毛細壓力變化曲線與現地土壤毛細壓力觀測結果，將可達到最佳擬合之結果。同時，顯示未率定與率定後之結果，各水資源分量之配比均有所改變，其中以地下水補注率與土壤蒸發散比率之改變最為明顯。

　　另外關於應用本模式於雲林大區域水平衡推估，地下水補注量推估結果顯示，各年平均地下水補注量介於2.68×108 m3/year至5.56×108 m3/year之間。換言之，雲林地區地下水年補注量介於2.68億噸至5.56億噸，七年平均之地下水補注量，經計算結果為4.15×108 m3/year，亦即4.15億噸。

　　This dissertation established a water budget model to estimate the infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge in unsaturated soil profiles. The proposed model considered the temporal and spatial variability including precipitation, duration of rainfall, meteorological conditions, antecedent moisture, and soil hydraulic properties. Sensitivity analysis of parameters and the variability of effective saturation in unsaturated soil were also discussed. Besides, at NCKU-RE study site, in-situ observations of soil pressure heads were obtained to validate the proposed model in conjunction with related soils and meteorological parameters in homogeneous unsaturated soil profiles. After the model validation and examination processed in homogeneous soil profiles in a small area, the suitable proposed model was employed to estimate the components of water budget in Yun-Lin plain in Taiwan as a case study, finally.

　　At first, hydraulic parameters of soil grain size, porosity, related volumetric water content, soil water retention curve, hydraulic conductivity and related meteorological factors were investigated for the NCKU-RE study site. Meanwhile, field observations system of soil water pressure head was set up to collect the series data in different depths from ground surface in this area. Unvalidated and validated model analysis were both tested to estimate the infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge in the small area. At last, the proposed model was used to analysis the large-scale water budget, furthering estimated the groundwater recharge in large-scale site, Yun-Lin plane in Taiwan, and compared with other researches.

　　Second, the results of sensitivity analysis showed that the effect of saturated hydraulic conductivity on each components of water budget is the most significant. The other factors were less significant. However, the amount of evapotranspiration is significantly influenced by the potential evapotranspiration rate (qEP), and qEP indirectly affected the ratio of recharge during soil profile drainage. Moreover, although the sensitivity of pore size distribution is small, it affected some proportion of all the components of water budget model that is comparatively significant to other insignificant factors.

　　Third, variability of initial effective saturation (Se0) analysis showed that the difference of estimation is more obvious, and the affection of duration is longer in initial stage while the permeability of soil is worse. To solve the uncertainty, the idea was suggested that when the model estimation proceeded, the average results of all different Se0 must to be calculated as the final results. Beside, for the viewpoint of long-term simulation when the input fluxes were equal to output fluxes in unsaturated zone, other idea was suggested that the unsaturated soil storage change was set to be equal to zero to solve the uncertainty.

　　The simulation results for the NCKU-RE study site showed that the proposed model curve will be better matched with in-situ observation curve, when the pore size distribution l increased from 0.44 to 0.73, and the absolute value of air entry ys decreased from －290 mm to －330 mm. By comparison unvalidated results with validated results, the proportion of each component is changed, especially in the ratio of recharge and evapotranspiration over the precipitation.

　　In addition, the proposed model was extended to estimate annual recharge average over the twenty sites in Yun-Lin plain area from 1991 through 1997. The ratio of the groundwater recharge to the precipitation varies from 0.30 to 0.39 for the study period with an average of 0.35. By multiplying the average precipitation area, the total amount of groundwater recharge Yun-Lin plain area varied between 2.68×108 m3/yr and 5.56×108 m3/yr in annually. The average of the groundwater recharge over the seven years in the Yun-Lin plain area is 4.15×108 m3/yr.

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