隨著全球淨零排放政策推動與電動車市場快速成長，未來大量退役鋰離子電池將逐步進入回收體系。退役電池中含有鋰、鈷、鎳等關鍵金屬，若能有效回收與循環利用，將有助於降低資源供應風險並提升資源自主能力。因此，本研究以臺灣為研究對象，探討未來電動車退役鋰電池之回收潛力、物質流變化及經濟效益。
本研究結合物質流分析與 EverBatt 回收經濟模型，建構臺灣退役鋰電池循環利用評估架構。依據臺灣 2040 年運具電動化政策，將電動車新增量推估至 2040 年，再透過 Weibull分布推估 2017 至 2050 年退役電池流量，並建立二次利用、市場規模成長及不同電池化學組成等情境，進一步評估火法冶金、濕法冶金及直接回收技術之材料回收量、成本與收益表現。
研究結果顯示，隨著電動車普及，臺灣退役鋰電池量將快速增加，具備發展都市礦山之潛力。相較於火法與濕法冶金，直接回收因能保留正極材料價值，在多數情境下展現較佳之經濟效益。二次利用雖可延長電池使用壽命，但也將延後材料進入回收系統之時間，使回收產業於前期面臨料源不足之挑戰。此外，未來電池市場若朝向高鎳三元鋰電池發展，將有助於提升回收收益與關鍵金屬回收潛力。本研究成果可作為政府推動鋰電池資源循環與建立國內自主供應鏈之參考依據。

Electric vehicle adoption is expected to increase significantly under Taiwan's 2050 net-zero transition policy, resulting in a substantial number of end-of-life lithium-ion batteries. This study evaluates the recycling potential and economic performance of retired EV batteries in Taiwan by integrating Material Flow Analysis (MFA) with the EverBatt techno-economic model.
A Weibull distribution was used to estimate battery retirement based on projected EV sales. Multiple scenarios considering EV market growth, battery chemistry transition, second-life utilization, and recycling technologies were evaluated. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the effects of key parameters on economic performance.
The results show that direct recycling achieves the earliest break-even point and the highest cumulative net profit in most scenarios. Hydrometallurgical recycling remains economically feasible but is more sensitive to battery chemistry and metal price fluctuations, whereas pyrometallurgical recycling shows relatively poor economic performance. Collection rate is the dominant factor during the early stage, while metal prices become the primary factor as recycling volumes increase. These findings provide quantitative support for future battery recycling planning and circular economy policy development in Taiwan.

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