近年來台灣地區受到氣候變遷的影響，雨量出現減少或持平而降雨量日數減少的現象。由於降雨是台灣地區之主要淡水資源，雨量變化直接衝擊水資源可利用量，因此，水資源受到氣候變異衝擊之影響，必須加以了解，方能因應氣候變化之挑戰。本研究以知本溪流域為研究區域，探討氣候變異下流域地下水資源合理之使用，以地質資料進行知本溪流域水文地質模式的建構，配合MODFLOW-SURFACT數值模擬軟體程式進行地下水流模擬，並透過有效入滲法推估數值模式所需之補注量，經由地下水位及同位素資料進行模式率定與驗證，經歷年資料模擬結果顯示，知本地區地表補注量約0.55億噸/年，抽水量約1.16百萬噸/年，邊界出水量約0.5億噸/年。中、上游山麓區域水位下降情況比下游平原區域更為明顯，對生態可能造成衝擊，最後透過模式對於不同氣候狀態進行希祿氏法安全出水量之模擬，得到流域內下游地區降雨量、補注量與安全出水量之關係式，此關係式應可作為未來不同氣候條件下對下游地區安全出水量評估之依據，但考量流域生產、生態、與生活之發展，知本流域水資源之利用仍應審慎全面規劃。

The groundwater resources becomes more valuable due to the influence of global climate change in recently years. Since the rainfall is the main fresh water source in Taiwan. This study explores the available groundwater resources in Chih-Ben basin under the impact of climate variation. A hydrogeological model is constructed based on the geology data. The recharge is estimated by using the concept of effective infiltration; A numerical modeling using MODFLOW-SURFACT is performed after model is calibrated and validated. The results show that the recharge of Chih-Ben watershed is about 55 million tons, the pumping is about 1.16 million tons, and the outflow from the watershed is about 50 million tons. The results also show that water resources in upstream and midstream is more vulnerable than in downstream. The decrease of water resource in upstream and midstream might result in the damage in soil and ecosystems of the basin. We simulate the safe yield under various climate condition. A relationship between rainfall and safe yield is constructed. The relationship can be used estimate the safe yield in various climate conditions in Chih-Ben. When the production, living and ecology of Chih-Ben basin are considered, the water resources still should be carefully evaluated.

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