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研究生: 林亙星
Lin, Ken-Hsing
論文名稱: 單期二階供應鏈部件訂購量之研究
Single-Period Ordering Problem in A Two-Echelon Supply Chain
指導教授: 吳政翰
Wu, Cheng-Han
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系碩士在職專班
Department of Industrial and Information Management (on the job class)
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 60
中文關鍵詞: 策略競局報童模型兩階供應鏈
外文關鍵詞: Game theory, Newsvendor model, Two-Echelon supply chain
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  • 對於具時效性原物料訂購決策需考量上下游雙方,避免上下游任一方承受單期銷售限制下過了銷售期而導致的訂購部件成本損失或是因為不足部件訂購數量而產生的未能實現獲利,以降低其對於成本及獲利造成的影響,進而謀求雙方獲利最大化。面對未知需求的市場環境下,供應鏈上下游雙方會以自身條件進行評估,個別決定合適訂購數量。但由於上下游雙方受限於取得成本以及本身獲利條件差異,造成上下游訂購數量的落差進而影響獲利。本研究將評估供應鏈上下游條件,首先決定最合適部件訂購量後,於上下游供應鏈進行分析並探討關於部件訂購數量的決策,以求降低上下游雙方因為訂購數量差異而導致的過多訂購成本或是未能實現的利潤損失。於上述情境,本研究將著重於單期內,單一上游模組供應商與單一下游製造廠商之間對於單一部件訂購模式的分析以及相互之間對於訂購數量的決策變化,並於兩階段情境下進行探討。首先分析上游模組供應商依其售價與成本而決定之訂購數量,接著分析下游製造廠商依成本及售價進而評估之訂購數量;並在上下游雙方取得之最適訂購量落差中以策略競局方式分析下游製造廠商與上游模組供應商之間關於合作與非合作關係的決策變化,依據其分析結果提出相對應結論及相對應決策建議,提供後續實務運用及研究參考。

    In a Two-Echelon supply chain, both buyer and supplier have their optimal ordering policies respectively based on their own fixed selling price and cost. To minimize the losses caused by unrealized revenue or overaged cost, especially when facing uncertain demand, optimal ordering quantities is even more crucial for both sides. Newsvendor Model is always a useful option when facing uncertain demand, as the probability density function of demand is known and both cost and selling price are fixed, optimal ordering quantity is then to be calculable. Once optimal ordering quantities from both sides are acquired, how to fill the gap caused by optimal quantity difference from both sides is a further obstacle that need to be solved, therefore the relationship between both sides is also a main discussing subject in this study, try to understand the causes behind transitions in a cooperative relationship and non-cooperative relationship. Furthermore, it will be an advantage to know strategies made from both sides, for any subsequent decision could be made to response to the last move taken from the supplier or the buyer.

    摘要 I 誌謝 VIII 表目錄 XI 圖目錄 XIII 第1章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的與流程 4 1.3 研究範圍與限制 6 第2章 文獻探討 7 2.1 兩階供應鏈 7 2.2 報童模型 9 2.3 策略競局 11 2.4 文獻參考小結與問題延伸 14 第3章 模型架構 16 3.1 問題描述 16 3.2 對應參數及上下游關係描述 20 3.3 標竿獲利式建立 24 3.4 非合作情境下模型建立 25 3.5 合作情境下建立 26 3.6 相關獲利式列表 29 3.7 範例說明 32 3.8 敏感度分析項目 34 第4章 模型評估與參數分析 36 4.1 範例基準獲利分析 36 4.1.1 對於需求預測差異的獲利分析 36 4.1.2 合作情境下基於相同需求預測下之獲利分析 37 4.1.3 基準範例獲利分析小結 39 4.2 各參數之敏感度分析 41 4.2.1 上游需求預測函數變動時獲利分析 42 4.2.2 上游獲利比變動時獲利分析 46 4.2.3 下游售價變動時獲利分析 50 4.3 小結 54 第5章 結論與未來研究方向 56 5.1 結論 56 5.2 未來研究方向 57 參考文獻 58

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    2026-07-12公開
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