| 研究生: |
李佳純 Li, Chia-Chun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
建立台灣骨質疏鬆症預測及骨折評估計算工具(TOPFACT):骨質疏鬆與骨折預防的多階段風險分層架構 Establishing the Taiwan osteoporosis prediction and fracture assessment calculation tool (TOPFACT): A multistage, risk-stratified framework for osteoporosis and fracture prevention |
| 指導教授: |
郭立杰
Kuo, Li-Chieh 吳至行 Wu, Chih-Hsing |
| 學位類別: |
博士 Doctor |
| 系所名稱: |
醫學院 - 健康照護科學研究所 Institute of Allied Health Sciences |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 130 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 骨質疏鬆症 、脆弱性骨折 、骨折風險評估工具 、風險分層 、骨折風險評估工具(FRAX®) |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Osteoporosis, Fragility Fracture, Fracture Risk Assessment Tool, Risk Stratification, FRAX® |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:3 下載:0 |
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骨質疏鬆症及其相關脆弱性骨折已成為高齡社會重要公共衛生議題。然而,目前骨質疏鬆篩檢工具、骨折風險評估模型及本土化驗證研究仍存在不足。本研究旨在整合骨質疏鬆篩檢、骨折風險評估與長期追蹤驗證成果,建立台灣骨質疏鬆預測與骨折風險評估計算工具(Taiwan Osteoporosis Prediction and Fracture Assessment Calculation Tool, TOPFACT)之理論基礎。
本研究整合三項互補的研究。第一項研究利用台灣骨質疏鬆調查資料庫分析FRAX各風險因子對骨折風險之相對貢獻,並建立簡化模型。第二項研究使用兩個台灣社區世代資料驗證OSTA、OSTAi及MOSTAi之篩檢效能,並建立性別及年齡分層之最佳切點。第三項研究結合2009–2010年社區世代資料與全民健康保險資料庫,完成10年追蹤,驗證台灣版FRAX模型之校準度、鑑別能力及資料導向切點。
本研究結果支持採用多階段、風險分層架構來預測骨質疏鬆症和骨折的風險。在社區層面,OSTAi(切點<-1)和MOSTAi(切點<=11)可作為第一線非侵入性篩檢工具,用於識別可能需要進一步評估的個體。隨後,使用雙能量X射線吸收法之骨密度數值計算FRAX(無論是否結合骨密度)的風險值,並進行骨折風險分層,以確定後續的照護和治療決策,而在臨床使用上,FRAX之主要骨鬆性骨折建議切點範圍為9.0-9.5,而髖骨骨折的切點範圍為4.0-4.5。不論在FRAX十年驗證或公式解構上,年齡、性別和過往骨折史始終是骨折風險的主要預測因素,構成TOPFACT架構的預測工具核心變數。
綜合以上結果,以三階段、風險分層設計建立出台灣本土的骨折風險預測公式TOPFACT。透過將骨質疏鬆症的管理模式從基於診斷的概念轉變為基於絕對骨折風險的方法,將骨折預防工作向前推進至中年。除了臨床應用之外,該架構或可融入至國民健康署成人預防保健服務中,並且與國際骨質疏鬆症基金會和中華民國骨質疏鬆症學會不斷發展的預防模式相一致,由「Stop at One」邁向「Stop at Zero」的預防骨鬆與首次骨折新思維。
Osteoporosis and fragility fractures represent major public health challenges in aging societies. However, gaps remain in osteoporosis screening, fracture risk assessment, and long-term validation of risk prediction models in Asian populations. This dissertation aimed to integrate osteoporosis screening, fracture risk prediction, and longitudinal validation to establish the scientific foundation of the Taiwan Osteoporosis Prediction and Fracture Assessment Calculation Tool (TOPFACT).
This study integrates three complementary studies. Study 1 decomposed the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) using a nationwide osteoporosis survey and developed simplified fracture prediction models. Study 2 validated osteoporosis self-assessment tools (OSTA, OSTAi, and MOSTAi) and established age- and sex-specific screening thresholds. Study 3 linked community-based cohort data with the National Health Insurance Research Database to perform a complete 10-year validation of Taiwan-specific FRAX models, including calibration, discrimination, and threshold analyses.
The results support a multistage, risk-stratified framework for osteoporosis and fracture prevention. At the community level, OSTAi (cutoff point <-1) and MOSTAi (cutoff point <=11) can serve as first-line non-invasive screening tools to identify individuals who may require further evaluation. Subsequently, FRAX (whatever with/without BMD) are calculated using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and fracture risk stratification is performed to determine subsequent care and treatment decisions. In clinical use, the recommended cutoff point range for FRAX in major osteoporotic fractures is 9.0–9.5, while the cutoff point range for hip fractures is 4.0–4.5. Regardless of the 10-year validation or formula deconstruction of FRAX, age, sex, and previous fracture remain the main predictors of fracture risk, constituting the core variables of the TOPFACT framework's predictive tools.
This dissertation integrates osteoporosis screening, fracture risk assessment, and long-term validation into a unified framework and provides the preliminary fracture prediction model called as TOPFACT. The findings support a stepwise strategy for community-based osteoporosis screening and fracture risk stratification and provide Taiwan-specific data-driven thresholds to inform future clinical and public health decision-making. This TOPFACT framework could also potentially be integrated into the Health Promotion Administration’s adult preventive health services. This would align with the evolving prevention models championed by the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the Taiwanese Osteoporosis Association (TOA), reflecting a new paradigm in osteoporosis management and fracture prevention: transitioning from 'Stop at One' to 'Stop at Zero.
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