| 研究生: |
劉懿嫺 Liu, Yi-Hsien |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以潛在類別模式分析台灣已婚婦女生育意願下降之因素 Identifying Determinants of Fertility Decline of Married Women in Taiwan:A Latent Class Analysis |
| 指導教授: |
田維華
Tian, Wei-Hua |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2011 |
| 畢業學年度: | 99 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 83 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 少子化 、生育意願 、潛在類別分析 、Probit Model |
| 外文關鍵詞: | fertility decline, birth wish, latent class analysis, probit model |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:113 下載:45 |
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本研究的主要目的是希望瞭解影響台灣已婚婦女生育意願下降的原因。影響婦女生育行為主要可以分成三大因素,分別為外在因素:經濟因素、教育因素、社會因素、宗教因素;內在因素:生育價值與生育代價;健康因素:不孕因素。本研究為了降低由於婦女內在因素所形成可能的異質性問題,因此首先運用潛在類別模式(Latent Class Analysis)將子女價值與態度的問捲進行探索性分析,來細分不同類型的婦女組別。接著,為了瞭解台灣實際的生育情形,運用OLS分析影響已婚婦女生育子女數的因素,及運用probit model分析影響台灣已婚婦女未曾生育之因素。最後,探討有那些因素會影響婦女的生育意願,運用probit model分析影響台灣全體、僅生育一位子女及未曾生育的已婚婦女不願(再)生育之因素。
研究結果發現,台灣已婚婦女可以分成五類,分別是:重視生育價值的婦女、重視生育代價的婦女、重視生育價值與代價的婦女、重視部分生育價值與代價的婦女及較不重視生育價值與代價的婦女。而在分析台灣已婚婦女實際的生育情形及生育意願時,確實會受到內在因素所影響。因此,建議政府加強已婚婦女的生育價值觀念、減少生育代價。另外,根據健康因素的實證結果,發現不孕症的婦女生育意願強烈。因此建議政府提供此族群補助。
The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of fertility de-cline of mar¬ried women in Taiwan. Factors that affect women's reproductive be-havior can be broadly divided into three categories: external factors such as eco-nomic, social and religious factors; internal factors such as the cost of raising chil-dren and value of having child; health factors such as infertility. This study adopts latent class analysis (LCA) to first identify the classifications of women' profiles to avoid possible heterogeneity caused by internal factors. The results showed that married women in Taiwan can be divided into five catego¬ries: to place im-portance on 「fertility value」, 「fertility cost」, 「both fertility value and cost」, 「part of fertility value and cost」 and 「less of fertility value and cost」 classes.
Then, utilizing ordinary least square (OLS) and probit regression to analyze if the 5 classes of women have different effects on actual numbers of birth or birth wish. Results showed that relative to 「less of fertility value and cost」 class, 「fertility value」, class is found to have positive effect on the actual number of birth and birth wish while 「fertility cost」 class has the opposite result. In addition, infertile women are found to have strong birth wish. Government may implement policies to provide cash subsidies to the infertile women.
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