香港的鐵路系統一直人滿為患。隨著香港人口的增加和新的社區擴展，包括舊區重建、開發棕地、高爾夫球場空地、填海造地等方式，至今依然有不同的新土地用作興建公私營房屋，預計社區人口過多問題將持續惡化。現有的港鐵重鐵系統的信號系統和繁忙時間班次已達到高峰時段的設計容量。因此，考慮在不增加現有的基建設備底下，開發替代運輸服務是緩解此問題的一種可能方法。過去的文獻討論主要集中在城際間交通方式的轉移上。然而，有關市內的公共交通服務選擇相關的研究非常罕見。因此，本研究探討了決定香港乘客選擇地鐵以外的公共交通工具的因素。

考慮潛在變數和客觀屬性變數。在潛在變數方面，本研究使用行為推理理論來了解乘客使用不同類型的運輸服務(港鐵或專營巴士)的意願，這是在結構方程模型中衡量的。就客觀定性變數而言，分類選擇模型用於了解社會經濟變數如何影響使用不同類型運輸服務的選擇行為。然後使用潛在變數將兩個模型結合起來，以探討影響選擇行為的因素的程度。

研究結果表明，“舒適”，“便利”和“體驗”的維度將影響乘客對不同類型巴士服務的偏好。以工作為目的乘車，在旅程途中無轉乘、男性、小學及以下教育程度的乘客偏向喜歡常規巴士服務；旅程前後不用連接車輛、沒持有港鐵/巴士月票、可享用交通補貼的乘客會偏向喜歡選擇繁忙時間特別班次服務；如乘客早上在07:00之前登車，會偏向喜歡選擇豪華巴士服務。研究結果可作為香港政府和香港巴士公司日後進一步考慮的參考。

The railway system of Hong Kong has been experiencing a growing trend of overcrowding. The situation is expected to deteriorate as the population rises and new extensions are not yet completed. The existing signal systems and shifts have reached the designed capacity for peak hours. Therefore, considering existing alternative services is one of possible ways to alleviate the problem. In the past, literature discussion had concentrated on mode shift of inter-city transport. The selection of urban public transport services was very rare. Therefore, this study explores the factors determining Hong Kong passengers’ public transport choice other than the MTR. Latent variables and objective qualitative variable are considered. In terms of latent variables, this study uses the behavioral reasoning theory to understand the passengers’ willingness to use different types of bus services, which is measured in a structural equation model. In terms of objective qualitative variables, the disaggregate choice model is used to understand how socio-economic variables affect the choice behavior of using different types of bus services. Latent variables are then used to combine the two models to explore the extent to which factors affect the choice behavior. The results of the study show that the dimensions of "comfort", "convenience" and "experience" will affect passengers’ preference for different types of bus service. The passengers who take the bus with purpose of work, no transfer during bus journey, male and the education level primary or lower prefer regular bus service, do not connect the vehicle, no MTR/bus pass, eligible for subsidy preference special departure service, bus boarded time before 07:00 prefer choosing deluxe service. The results of this study can serve as a reference for further consideration by the Hong Kong government and bus companies in the city.

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