本研究以不同移動源排放係數推估模式(MOBILE6.2及MOVES)推估移動源汽油車(二行程機車、四行程機車、自用小客車、營業小客車及小貨車)、柴油車(小客車、小貨車、大貨車、大客車及公車/客運車) 細微粒(PM2.5) 排放係數，分析基準情境及自然成長情境之排放係數變化，比較兩模式差異性；再依排放係數推估結果應用於計算全臺移動源細微粒排放量空間分布，探討各車種排放相對重要性與潛在影響，提供研訂管制減量策略參考。
活動強度研究結果顯示：全臺基準年移動源總活動強度為1.6 × 1011 km/yr，市區道路活動強度( 7.0 × 1010 km/yr)占總活動強度比例最高( 45.4%)；各車種活動強度比例最高為自用小客車。柴油大貨車以國道為主要活動路，其他車種主要活動皆於市區道路。
以MOBILE6.2及MOVES推估細微粒排放係數結果顯示，機車排放係數為MOVES係數高於MOBILE6.2係數 (1.3~2.0倍) 。模式推估機車排放係數變化趨勢，從民國105年至120年，高齡機車未呈現明顯劣化現象，與文獻實測值(高車齡車輛或高車行里程具有較高排放係數值)結果不一致，顯示國內目前援用模式未能反應真實排放，應與模式模擬機車排放係數未設定適切劣化曲線有關。MOBILE6.2模擬汽車排放係數不會隨推估年份及期別改變而劣化。MOVES模擬汽車排放係數則呈現隨車齡增加而劣化之趨勢，單一年份內排放係數最大最小值差距隨著年份增加而減少，各期別汽車於不同年份之排放係數亦具劣化趨勢，與實測值結果呈現相同趨勢。研究顯示，MOVES模式推估排放係數隨車齡/累積行駛程之變化趨勢較符合實際排放特徵。
MOBILE6.2及MOVES推估柴油車基準年排放係數變化趨勢亦呈現隨著車齡增加而劣化現象，然而MOBILE6.2推估目標年份排放係數則呈現符合四期標準及以後柴油車不具劣化現象，與實際排放測試結果不符，顯示MOBILE6.2模式應用於微粒未來排放推估需再審慎評估。MOVES模式推估未來年柴油車排放係數呈劣化現象，符合實際排放測試結果趨勢。比較模式推估值與文獻結果，基準年模式推估曲線與EMFAC2017具相似趨勢；排放曲線差距比較結果，MOVES模式之柴油小貨車、柴油大客車、柴油大貨車排放曲線較接近EMFAC模式排放曲線，MOBILE6.2模式柴油小客車、公車/客運車排放曲線與MOVES模式接近，以實測值比較結果，推估值較實測值偏低。由於較新期別排放係數差距不大，高齡車輛劣化影響整體排放趨勢，因此選擇排放係數曲線劣化明顯之模式應較保守。
全臺移動源細微粒排放量推估結果顯示，基準情境排放量依序為：柴油大貨車 > 柴油小貨車 > 二行程機車 > 四行程機車 > 自用小客車；適用較早期排放標準之各車種車輛，細微粒排放相對比例較高，分別佔各該車種排放量50% 以上，應可為移動源細微粒排放減量管制策略之優先評估目標。

This study investigated the applicability of fine particulate matter (FPM) emission factors (EF) derived from mobile emission models (MOBILE and MOVES) to estimate emission from mobile sources, including motorcycles, gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles. Emission factors from models were compared with tested-data in literatures. Annual emission of FPM from various types of vehicle were calculated by emission factors and vehicle kilometer travel.
The results indicate that EF of motorcycl from MOBIL E6.2 does not present deterioration which could not fit the tend of real data. The EFs of gasoline vehicles from MOBILE6.2 does not present deterioration, either. However, EFs from MOVES deteriodate as vehicle aged which could reflect the trenf in real world. The EFs of diesel vehicles from two models present a deterioration curve. However, real world test data seem higher than modeled EFs.
Estimation of annual PM emission from various vehicles ranked as heavy-duty diesel truck > light-duty diesel truck > 2-stroke motorcycle > 4-stroke motorcycle > light duty passenger vehicle. High mileage and aged vehicles contributed great portion of FPM emissions in Taiwan which should be placed in the priorty list for abatement of FPM emission from mobile sources.

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