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研究生: 黃智圓
Huang, Chih-Yuan
論文名稱: 考量Wiener衰退過程設計退化測試抽樣計畫
Designing a degradation test sampling plan based on Wiener process
指導教授: 胡政宏
Hu, Cheng-Hung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 67
中文關鍵詞: 抽樣計畫退化測試Wiener退化過程
外文關鍵詞: sampling plan, degradation test, Wiener degradation process
相關次數: 點閱:104下載:31
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  • 當下游收到一批貨物時,除了全檢或直接允收之外也可以使用抽樣檢測去執
    行判定,可以利用抽樣計畫執行對應的測試並透過抽樣檢測後所得估計值及其允
    收條件考量是否這批貨物要拒收。而當配送的產品是高可靠度產品時,由於科技
    的進步,使得持續使用一段時間後還可以繼續使用的機率逐漸提升,目前即使使
    用加速技術,能夠在測試時間內收集到有關壽命分配的資訊仍然非常有限。退化
    測試是針對產品的品質特徵會隨時間推移而退化的產品進行測試並記錄其品質
    特徵退化改變,例如記錄 LED 的亮度退化、電纜中電阻退化等等以評估產品壽
    命,退化測試的數據則可以提供有效的壽命資訊,比如說退化到某種程度視為失
    效,而失效的時間點為該產品壽命,且退化資訊比沒有出現失效的壽命測試數據
    能夠更加準確地估計產品壽命。
    針對以上情境,本研究希望可以建立一個產品的退化為 Wiener 退化過程的退
    化測試的抽樣計畫,考量執行抽樣的總成本以及需要承擔的抽樣風險,探討當滿
    足所要求的抽樣風險下最低需要多少預算,在滿足最低預算下抽檢多少個樣本、
    記錄多少次退化值能夠使得估計值的變異數最小,又能夠在預算限制內完成以及
    滿足抽樣條件所對應要使用的允收標準,最後透過訂好的允收標準判定是否允收
    貨批。以 Zhai et al.(2016)的案例來驗證模型,求得在各參數下的最佳抽樣計畫,
    再針對最佳抽樣計畫進行調整,最後進行敏感度分析。分析結果發現記錄成本對
    最低預算要求的影響最為明顯,由此可知若想更動預算,可以從這項成本著手調
    整。最後針對測量上存在測量誤差的情境,提出最佳抽樣計畫,並使用個案探討
    測量誤差對預算及模型上的影響。

    When a batch of goods is received downstream, in addition to full inspection and direct acceptance, sampling inspection can also be used to perform the judgement. You can use the sampling plan to perform the corresponding test, and determine whether the lot should be rejected by the estimated value after the test and its acceptance criteria. When the product is highly reliable, it used to be a service life test, but currently the information that can be recorded even with acceleration technology is very limited. Therefore, instead of using degradation tests. Degradation test is a change in quality characteristics that record during testing. For example, recording the brightness degradation of the LED or the resistance degradation of the cable. In view of the above situation, this study proposes a degradation tests sampling plan based on Wiener degradation process. This sampling plan subject to the total cost of performing degradation testing and the sampling risk, including producer’s risk and consumer’s risk. Minimize the variance of the estimation of the drift rate for deciding sampling number, recoding times and acceptance criteria. Finally, this study will use Zhai et al. (2016) to demonstrate the model and perform sensitivity analysis.

    目錄 摘要 I 誌謝 VII 表目錄 XI 圖目錄 XII 第壹章、 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究流程 4 第四節 論文架構 5 第貳章、 文獻探討 6 第一節 驗收抽樣計畫 6 2.1.1計量型抽樣計畫 6 2.1.2計數型抽樣計畫 7 第二節 壽命測試抽樣計畫 8 第三節 退化實驗 10 2.3.1退化路徑 11 2.3.2加速退化測試 12 2.3.3退化測試抽樣計畫 14 第四節 小結 15 第參章、 Wiener退化模型的抽樣計畫 17 第一節 問題描述 17 第二節 參數符號與模型假設 19 3.2.1 模型參數符號 19 3.2.2 模型假設 21 第三節 模型建立 23 第四節 模型求解 25 第五節 小結 35 第肆章、 模型驗證與分析 37 第一節 個案情境說明 37 第二節 個案結果分析 38 4.2.1求解結果 39 4.2.2敏感度分析 44 第三節 小結 48 第伍章、 考量測量誤差 50 第一節 情境說明 50 第二節 模型求解 50 第三節 個案結果分析 54 5.3.1求解結果 54 5.3.2比較是否考量測量誤差(數學解) 57 5.3.3比較是否考量測量誤差(個案數值) 59 第四節 小結 59 第陸章、 結論與建議 61 第一節 研究結論 61 第二節 未來研究方向 62 參考文獻 63 附錄 66 最小化誤判機率和(Proposition 2.) 66 考量測量誤差的參數分配 67

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