| 研究生: |
蔡易錚 Tsai, Yi-Cheng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
考慮時間不一致偏好與學習曲線交互影響下探討公司最佳投資時點 The optimal investment timing with time-inconsistent preference under learning-curve technology |
| 指導教授: |
劉裕宏
Liu, Yu-Hong |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 57 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 時間偏好不一致 、學習曲線 、實質選擇權 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Time-inconsistent preference, Learning curve, Real option |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:85 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
管理者的行為及心理因素深刻影響著企業的投資決策,尤其是對於時間因素的衡量,對於短期中期長期投資的評價也會略有不同,時間偏好不一致的投資人會考慮到對未來不確定性以及投資在短期或長期的時間心理偏好,本篇提供時間偏好不一致特性基於學習曲線的投資實質選擇權評價,根據管理者對於時間偏好不一致特性建模,並考慮投資後學習曲線提升生產效率所帶來的正向效果,探討管理者是否會加速投資或遞延投資以及對投資略的變化。此篇對於時間偏好不一致是以雙曲折現的基礎上代替一般的指數折現對時間偏好不一致加以建模。然而在考慮了時間偏好一致、天真及老練的管理者,區分出各方的潛在關係並連結學習曲線效果後,更能解釋公司生產中規模經濟的意義。透過本篇模型可以發現,學習曲線加速了時間偏好不一致管理者的投資,也進而減緩違約時機,同時也發現學習效率在增加的過程中,對於投資觸發價格的影響會遞減。時間偏好不一致方面,天真的投資人受到學習曲線的影響最大,在全股權融資時,天真的投資人會更晚投資且更晚的放棄投資,在股債融資時,天真的投資人則會更早的啟動投資。
Entrepreneurial behavior and psychological factors significantly impact a company’s investment decisions, particularly in the context of changes in the entrepreneur’s preferences that can be further complicated by time-varying issues. Assessments of short-term, medium-term, and long-term investments may vary slightly as investors with a time-inconsistent preference consider uncertainties about the future and biases of such investments. This paper provides an analytically tractable framework of time-inconsistent preference based on the learning curve for real options valuation in investments. The study models the entrepreneur’s time preferences and considers the positive effects of increased production efficiency resulting from learning curve improvements after investment. It further explores whether managers accelerate or delay investments and how this affects investment strategies and then models time-inconsistent preference based on hyperbolic discounting instead of typical exponential discounting. Linking the learning curve effect and considering different types of entrepreneurs with time-inconsistent preferences that are naïve and sophisticated better explains the significance of economies of scale in company production. The model reveals that the learning curve accelerates investments by managers with a time-inconsistent preference and delays the time to default. Additionally, the learning curve shows that the influence of learning efficiency on investment trigger prices diminishes as learning speed increases. Regarding the time-inconsistent preference, naïve investors are most influenced by the learning curve. Under full equity financing, such investors delay their investments and abandon them later, while under equity and debt financing they activate their investments earlier.
A, C., Li, Z., and Wang, F., 2016. Optimal Investment Strategy under Time-inconsistent Preferences and High-water Mark Contract. Operations Research Letters, 44, 212-218.
Akerlof, G.A., 1991. Procrastination and Obedience. The American Economic Review, 81, 1-19.
Besanko, D., Doraszelski, U., Kryukov, Y., and Satterthwaite, M., 2010. Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamic. Econometrica, 81, 453-508.
Black, F., and Scholes, M., 1973. The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 8, 637-654.
Brennan, M.J., and Schwartz, E.S., 1985. Evaluating Natural Resource Investments. The Journal of Business, 58, 135-157.
Chen, S., Li, Z., and Zeng, Y., 2014. Optimal Dividend Strategies with Time-inconsistent Preferences. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 46, 150-172.
Dixit, A.K., and Pindyck, R.S., 1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Feinstein, S.P., and Lander, D.M., 2002. A Better Understanding of Why NPV Undervalues Managerial Flexibility. The Engineerig Economist, 47, 418-435.
Gan, L., Xia, X., and Xu, M., 2023. Entrepreneurial Investment and Financing with Third-party Guarantees under Present-biased Preferences. Finance Research Letters, 55, 103841.
Glover, K.J., and Hambusch, G., 2016. Leveraged Investments and Agency Conflicts when Cash Flows are Mean Reverting. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 67, 1-21.
Grenadier, S.R., and Wang, N., 2007. Investment under uncertainty and time-inconsistent preferences. Journal of Financial Economics, 84, 2-39.
Harris, C., and Laibson, D., 2001. Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers. Econometrica, 69, 935-957.
Harstad, B., 2020. Technology and Time Inconsistent. Journal of Political Economy, 128, 2753-2689.
He, X.D., and Jiang, Z.L., 2021. On the Equilibrium Strategies for Time-inconsistent Problems in Continuous Time. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 59, 3860-3886.
Hu, F., Zhang, F., and Zou, Z., 2020. R&D Investment under Time-inconsistent Preferences. Economics Letters, 197, 109620.
Keswani, A., and Shackleton, M.B., 2006. How Real Option Disinvestment Flexibility Augments Project NPV. European Journal of Operational Research, 168, 240-252.
Laibson, D., 1997. Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 443-478.
Loewenstein, G., and Prelec, D., 1992. Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 573-597.
Lein, D., and Yu, C.F., 2014. Production and Anticipatory Hedging under Time-inconsistent Preference. The Journal of Futures Markets. 35, 961-985.
Li, H., Mu, C., and Yang, J., 2016. Optimal Contract Theory with Time-inconsistent Preferences. Economic modelling, 52, 519-530.
Li, J., Liu, B., Yang, J., and Zou, Z., 2020. Hedge Fund’s Dynamic Leverage Decisions under Time-inconsistent Preferences. European Journal of Operational Research, 284, 779-791.
Liu, B., Lu, L., Mu, C., and Yang., J, 2016. Time-inconsistent Preferences, Investment and Asset Pricing. Economics Letters, 148, 48-52.
Majd, S., and Pinndyck, R.S., 1989. The Learning Curve and Optimal Production under Uncertainty. Rand Journal of Economics, 20, 331-343.
Marín-Solano, J., and Navas, J., 2010. Consumption and Portfolio Rules for Time-inconsistent Investors. European Journal of Operational Research, 201, 860-872.
Mauer, D.C., and Sarkar, S., 2005. Real Options, Agency Conflicts, and Optimal Capital Structure. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29, 1405-1428.
McDonald, R., and Siegel, D., 1986. The Value of Waiting to Invest. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101, 707-727.
Merton, R.C., 1974. The Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates. The Journal of Finance, 29, 449-470.
Niu, Y., He, L., and Wu, W., 2021. Managerial Compensation with Hyperbolic Discounting. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101390.
O'Donoghue, T., and Rabin, M., 1999. Doing It Now or Later. American Economic Review, 89, 103-124.
Remer, D.S., and Nieto, A.P., 1995. A Compendium and Comparison of 25 Project Evaluation Techniques. International Journal of Production Economics, 42, 101-129.
Salois, M.J., and Moss, C.B., 2011. A Direct Test of Hyperbolic Discounting Using Market Asset Data. Economics Letters, 112, 290-292.
Sarker, S., and Zhang, C., 2020. Investment and Financing Decisions with Learning-Curve Technology. Journal of Banking and Finance, 121, 105967.
Shi, Y., Hall, N.G., and Cui, X., 2023. Work More Tomorrow: Resolving Present Bias in Project Management. Operations Research, 71, 314-340.
Shin, Y.H., and Roh, K.H., 2019. An Optimal Consumption and Investment Problem with Stochastic Hyperbolic Discounting. Advances in Difference Equations, 211(2019).
Thaler, R., 1981. Some Empirical Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency. Economics Letter, 8, 201-207.
Tian, Y., 2016. Optimal Capital Structure and Investment Decisions under Time-Inconsistent Preferences. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 65, 83-104
校內:2028-08-01公開