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研究生: 涂乃潔
Tu, Nai-Chieh
論文名稱: 航空公司宣告添購航空器對股價之影響
How Does the Announcement of Adding Aircraft from Airlines Affect on the Market Value
指導教授: 蔡東峻
Tsai, Dung-Chun
林佐鼎
Lin, Tzuoo-Ding
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 46
中文關鍵詞: 航空器航空公司異常報酬事件分析法投資金額
外文關鍵詞: Abnormal Return, Aircraft, Airlines, Investment Size, Event Study
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  •   航空器為航空公司主要營運工具,景氣良好時航空公司紛紛添購航空器,期望提高營收,然而成本支出動輒數億,足以影響航空公司的成本與獲利能力,在成本與效益兩者的考量之下,市場價值備受關注,投資人接收到此訊息後,產生正向或負向的預期,是本研究的重點所在,故本研究以美國航空公司添購航空器為實證對象,並以訊息理論為理論基礎,探討此投資傳遞給投資者何種訊息。

      本研究最大的特色在於以市場價值的角度,分析美國航空公司添購航空器的影響,採用事件分析法來衡量此宣告效果,蒐集1994年至2003年共103筆資料,並以股價的異常報酬作為衡量依據。採用此研究方法的優點在於可以衡量單一事件所造成的影響,且股價亦為未來現金流量的折現値,故較為客觀且具有前瞻性。

      研究結果顯示,投資人對於航空公司資本支出於添購航空器此決策,持有正向的看法,對公司的股價造成正向顯著的異常報酬,故航空公司添購航空器時,傳達給投資者未來現金流量將增加的訊息。此外,影響宣告效果的因素眾多,故本研究加入其它變數,進一步探討投資金額、成長機會以及是否汰換舊航機,對宣告效果的影響。結果顯示投資金額高者相較於投資金額低者,有較顯著的正向股價異常報酬。而成長機會越高及無汰換舊航機者,股價的正向異常報酬較顯著。

      由於本研究結論證實,航空公司添購航空器有助於市場價值的提升,對投資人而言,他們會相當注意企業的相關訊息,投資人會透過公司宣告來判斷公司未來的發展,若當航空公司有此類宣告時,投資人可了解該公司的營運狀況與策略,進而調整自己的投資策略。

     Aircraft is the main operation tool for airlines to make profit. When economy conditions become prosperous, airlines will add aircraft in order to increase revenue. However, the expense of aircraft is huge, so it has extremely effect on cost and profitability of airlines. In this paper, we use market signaling perspective to link between investment announcement and shareholder reactions. The characteristic of this research is analyzing the effect of adding aircraft of airlines by market value. We measure the effect of the announcement by event study. This study sample was selected from the airlines in the USA. The sample size is 103 from 1994-2003.

     The results show that investors have positive perspective when airlines announce to add aircraft. There is significantly positive market-value associated with announcement of adding aircraft by airlines. Besides, there are still other factors will affect market-value. We also find the larger size and greater opportunity for investment will result in higher market-value. Also, it will have significantly positive effect on market-value when airlines add aircraft without retiring the old one. The findings will benefit both airlines and investors.

    目錄 摘 要…………………………………………………i 英文摘要…………………………………………………ii 誌 謝…………………………………………………iii 目 錄…………………………………………………iv 表 目 錄…………………………………………………v 第一章 緒論……………………………………………1 第一節 研究背景與動機………………………………1 第二節 研究目的………………………………………3 第三節 研究範圍與研究限制…………………………4 第四節 論文架構………………………………………5 第二章 文獻探討………………………………………6 第一節 航空公司添購航空器之決策…………………6 第二節 訊息理論(Signaling Theory)觀點…………9 第三節 添購航空器對股價的影響……………………10 第三章 研究方法………………………………………16 第一節 事件分析法……………………………………16 第二節 資料蒐集………………………………………20 第三節 複迴歸分析……………………………………20 第四章 實證結果分析…………………………………23 第一節 樣本敘述………………………………………23 第二節 整體航空公司宣告添購航空器之股價異常報酬…………………………………………………………26 第三節 投資金額高低與股價異常報酬之關係…………………………………………………………28 第四節 成長機會高低與股價異常報酬之關係…………………………………………………………29 第五節 有無汰換舊航機與股價異常報酬之關係…………………………………………………………30 第六節 迴歸分析………………………………………31 第五章 結論與建議……………………………………34 第一節 研究結論………………………………………34 第二節 實務上的建議…………………………………36 第三節 理論上的意涵…………………………………37 第四節 未來研究建議…………………………………38 參考文獻…………………………………………………40 表目錄 表4-1 樣本年度分佈表………………………………23 表4-2 航空公司宣告筆數之分佈表…………………24 表4-3 樣本分類次數表………………………………25 表4-4 變數之敘述性統計表…………………………25 表4-5 整體樣本前五天至後五天股價異常報酬表…27 表4-6 宣告期間整體樣本之累積異常報酬表………28 表4-7 投資金額高低前五天至後五天之股價異常報酬表………………………………………………………29 表4-8 成長機會大小前五天至後五天之股價異常報酬表………………………………………………………30 表4-9 是否汰換舊航機前五天至後五天之股價異常報酬表………………………………………………………31 表4-10 迴歸分析表…………………………………33

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