隨著全球化、少子化及高齡化進程，人口減少與結構轉型帶來的城市收縮現象已成全球性挑戰。台灣自2020年進入人口負成長階段，面臨土地利用及資源分配的結構性挑戰。本研究聚焦台南市北區、中西區、東區、南區及安平區，從智慧收縮視角探討舊市區人口縮減下的土地使用變遷與空置地特徵，並模擬未來土地利用趨勢，以期為政策規劃提供參考。
本研究旨在分析台南市舊市區在人口縮減情境下的土地利用與空置地特徵，模擬2034年土地使用變遷趨勢，並提出智慧收縮策略，促進土地資源高效管理與再利用。研究採用類神經網路、馬可夫鏈及細胞自動機（ANN-CA-Markov）模型，結合2016年至2022年間的土地利用調查資料，進行歷史變遷分析與未來趨勢預測。研究範圍涵蓋台南市五個行政區，影響因子包括人口密度與基礎設施分布等，以土地利用與空置地的區位與類型變化為核心。
研究發現，2016年至2022年間，在研究區域當中與人口縮減趨勢相反，商業與住宅用地的空置地面積呈減少趨勢。然而，公共設施及其他用地的空置地顯著增加，且分布集中於特定區域。北區與中西區因開發成熟度高及人口減少，土地再利用彈性較低，空置地多集中於公共設施周邊，發展潛力受限。東區與南區空置地受城市擴展與基礎設施建設影響，呈邊界拓展趨勢，部分地區具備配合城市功能轉型的潛力。安平區空置地多集中於觀光資源周邊，未來可能在觀光功能強化中發揮重要作用。模擬結果顯示，2034年空置地分布將受到人口減少與需求下降的多重影響，呈現集聚與擴展並存的特徵。北區與中西區空置地可能進一步增加，東區與南區需挖掘土地利用潛力以配合城市需求，而安平區空置地在觀光資源整合中具更大發展可能性。
本研究最後建議以智慧收縮為核心，採取動態土地管理策略，促進土地資源的再利用與空間優化，包括：針對空置地進行類型化分類，依照區域特性制定差異化利用策略；結合政策引導，優化土地再開發效率。總體而言，人口縮減帶來的城市挑戰可成為契機，透過智慧收縮理念調整城市規劃，提升居民生活品質並實現永續發展。

Urban shrinkage due to globalization, declining birth rates, and aging populations is a growing challenge. Taiwan’s negative population growth since 2020 has intensified land-use and resource allocation issues. This study examines land-use changes and vacant land in Tainan City's North, Central and Western, East, South, and Anping Districts, using ANN-CA-Markov models and 2016–2022 land-use data to analyze trends and simulate future scenarios of 2034.
Findings show a decline in vacant commercial and residential land but an increase in vacant land for public facilities, concentrated in specific areas. The North and Central and Western Districts face redevelopment limitations due to high maturity and population loss. The East and South Districts exhibit expansion trends, while Anping District's vacant land near tourism hubs holds development potential.
Strategies should focus on increasing redevelopment flexibility in older districts, leveraging expansion in growth-prone areas, and optimizing tourism-focused development in Anping District. This study highlights smart shrinkage and dynamic land management as key to turning urban challenges into opportunities for sustainable growth.

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法規計畫
本國法規計畫
1.閒置空間利用獎助辦法(2001)。行政院文化建設委員會。
日本法規計畫
1.都市再生特別措置法(2014)。日本國土交通省。
2.立地適正化計畫(2014)。日本國土交通省。

研究報告
1.国土交通省住宅局(2019)。令和元年空き家所有者実態調査報告書。
2.社会資本整備審議会(2003)。国際化、情報化、高齢化、人口減少等 21 世紀の新しい潮流に対応した 都市再生のあり方はいかにあるべきか」答申 『都市再生ビジョン』

統計資料
1.低度及待售住宅。內政部不動產資訊平台。檢自 https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V3/B/SCRB0501.aspx?mode=A3。
2.台南市歷年人口統計分析資料。臺南市政府民政局。檢自https://bca.tainan.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1134&s=8157。
3.111年臺南市北區統計年報。臺南市北區區公所。檢自https://www.tnnorth.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=8009&s=8561360。
4.111年臺南市中西區統計年報。臺南市中西區區公所。檢自https://web.tainan.gov.tw/tnwcdo/News.aspx?n=19962&sms=18808。
5.111年臺南市東區統計年報。臺南市東區區公所。檢自https://www.tneast.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=23660&s=7656041。
6.111年臺南市南區統計年報。臺南市南區區公所。檢自https://www.tnsouth.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=16981&s=8578163。

書籍
中文書籍
1.饗庭伸(2015)。折疊都市：從日本的都市規劃實踐經驗，探尋人口減少時代的城市設計和人本生活(林書嫻譯)。臉譜出版。(原著出版於2015年)

外文書籍
1.Bowman, A. O. M. (2004). Terra incognita: Vacant land and urban strategies. Georgetown University Press.
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