本研究針對1995–2024年間臺灣乾旱與熱浪的聯合發生現象進行系統性分析，旨在探討乾熱複合事件在氣候變遷與ENSO調控下的時空變異特徵及其對資源系統的影響。研究結合BEAST突變點偵測、旋轉Clayton Copula非線性依存模型及遲滯關係分析，並透過能源–糧食–水–健康（EFW-H）概念整合環境資源資料，量化事件對各資源的即時與延遲性影響。結果顯示，臺灣乾熱事件既受到全球增暖驅動的長期累積效應影響，也受到ENSO短期波動的調控；北部基隆的乾熱複合事件依存性強，對稻米產值、家庭用電、水庫蓄水量及熱相關疾病影響廣泛，呈現跨年度延遲累積效應；南部恆春則以即時熱衝擊為主，主要影響漁業與健康，乾熱複合事件發生門檻低且頻率較高。Copula重現期分析與ENSO相位比較進一步顯示，基隆在聖嬰期易發生高強度事件且重現期較長，恆春複合事件發生頻率高，且於反聖嬰期較易發生，呈現區域差異之極端事件風險特徵。綜合而言，本研究建立了一套可同時評估乾熱事件時序演變、非線性結構與跨系統影響的分析框架，補足了臺灣乾熱事件研究之不足，並為未來水資源調度、能源規劃、農漁業調適及公共衛生防護提供科學依據，對提升臺灣面對極端乾熱事件的韌性與永續發展具有重要實務價值。

This study investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics and systemic analysis of compound drought and heatwave events (CDHEs) in Taiwan by integrating the Energy–Food–Water–Health (EFW-H) concept with the Bayesian Ensemble Algorithm for Change-Point Detection and Time Series Decomposition (BEAST), lag correlation analysis, and the rotating Clayton Copula model. Using daily meteorological data and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from 1995 to 2024, a comprehensive CDHEs database was constructed to examine the potential impacts on electricity consumption, water storage, agricultural production, aquaculture yield, and heat-related health outcomes.
The results suggest that greenhouse gas forcing drives the long-term intensification of CDHEs, while ENSO introduces short-term and regional variability. Northern Taiwan exhibited that CDHEs is more correlated with energy demand, agricultural production, and heat-related illness, whereas southern Taiwan showed greater vulnerability in agricultural and aquaculture as well as health systems. This research provides a scientific base for climate adaptation and resource management by quantifying both immediate and lagged responses of resource and environment systems to extreme climate events.

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