本研究藉由更新中國31省之追蹤資料，探討影響中國政府醫療支出成長的決定性因素。文中由六個層面來探討對於醫療支出成長的影響，分別是所得因素、醫療供給面因素、政府赤字、保險制度、人口結構、醫療水準。此外，實證分析採用固定效果模型與隨機效果模型，以控制各省差異對於醫療支出成長造成影響。
實證上，本文先探討2002年至2010年，影響政府醫療支出成長的決定性因素。接著再分析2007年至2010年，保險制度對於政府醫療支出成長的影響。研究結果發現：（1）所得為重要的決定性因素，與文獻結論相符。（2）保險參與率的提升與人口的增加誘發對於醫療的需求，進而增加政府的醫療支出。（3）老年人口扶養比對於醫療支出影響沒有預期中的顯著。（4）政府赤字與醫療支出為正相關，表示赤字的增加不會抑制政府之醫療支出。（5）死亡率的降低與醫療供給面的改善仰賴政府的力量，故顯著影響政府醫療支出。

This study examines the determinants of the growth of Chinese provincial government health expenditure by updating the panel data of 31 provinces in China. This study uses six levels of variables to examine the impact to the growth of health expenditure, including income factor, medical supply side factor, government deficit, insurance system, population structure, standards of medical care. In addition, this study employs fixed-effect model and random-effect model to control the growth of health expenditure caused by the differences in each province.
Empirically, this study first explores the determinants of the growth of government health expenditure from 2002 to 2010, then analyzes the impact on the growth of government health expenditure caused by the insurance system from 2007 to 2010. The finding show that：（1）Income factor is an important determinant and it corresponds to the conclusion of the literature.（2）A rise in participation rate of insurance and the increase in population induce the demand for medical care.（3）The impact on government health expenditure caused by old-age dependency ratio is not as significant as expected.（4）There is a positive relationship between government deficit and health expenditure, indicating that the increase in the deficit does not decrease the government health care expenditure.（5）The decrease in mortality and the improvement of the medical supply side rely on government's efforts, and therefore, they significantly affect government health expenditure.

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